In 1 week, which of the markets I have subsidized with 1000 mana will have the most increase in volume? [Resolves 80/20]

Basic

Ṁ358

resolved Oct 10

80%66%

Will we find strong evidence of extraterrestrial life by 2030? https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-we-find-strong-evidence-for-ex

20%4%

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/when-will-the-russian-invasion-of-u

"Five years after the development of weakly general AI, will wealth inequality in the U.S. have increased?" https://manifold.markets/evergreenemily/five-

26%

"Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030?" https://manifold.markets/BenjaminShindel/will-autonomous-driving-rideshares

In /Joshua/what-four-markets-will-i-subsidize I chose the four markets listed here and subsidized each with 1000 mana. My hope would be that doing so will inspire further trading on these questions. I will try to measure this in total volume of mana spent in the markets in the next week.

At time of subsidy, the volume in these markets is:

Russia - 1119M

AI Inequality - 769M

Alien Life - 1693M

AI vs Human Rideshares - 211M

This market closes at noon PT in one week, and I will check those volumes again. This market resolves 80% to the market with the most increase in volume, and 20% to the market with the second most increase in volume.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Unranked

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1,000

and

3.00

7 Comments

10 Holders

32 Trades

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Resolution time!

Final tallies:

Russian Invasion - 1119M > 2043M

AI Inequality - 769M > 1302M

Alien Life - 1693M > 4717M

AI vs Human Rideshares - 211M > 659M

That's Alien Life in first place with 3948 mana and Russian Invasion in second place with 924 mana! Thanks for participating, everyone! I think I'll make an Unlinked Market for subsidy suggestions next, let me know if you have any format suggestions!

Alright, next round is for double the subsidy!

to be clear, this market is measuring absolute increase in volume, not relative, correct?

Yes!

link to the wealth inequality question is broken

Oops, it's this one:

Good Mythical Morning Question GIF by Rhett and Link

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