In 1 week, which of the markets I have subsidized with 1000 mana will have the most increase in volume? [Resolves 80/20]
11
100Ṁ358resolved Oct 10
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
80%66%
Will we find strong evidence of extraterrestrial life by 2030? https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-we-find-strong-evidence-for-ex
20%4%
When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/when-will-the-russian-invasion-of-u
3%
"Five years after the development of weakly general AI, will wealth inequality in the U.S. have increased?" https://manifold.markets/evergreenemily/five-
26%
"Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030?" https://manifold.markets/BenjaminShindel/will-autonomous-driving-rideshares
In /Joshua/what-four-markets-will-i-subsidize I chose the four markets listed here and subsidized each with 1000 mana. My hope would be that doing so will inspire further trading on these questions. I will try to measure this in total volume of mana spent in the markets in the next week.
At time of subsidy, the volume in these markets is:
Russia - 1119M
AI Inequality - 769M
Alien Life - 1693M
AI vs Human Rideshares - 211M
This market closes at noon PT in one week, and I will check those volumes again. This market resolves 80% to the market with the most increase in volume, and 20% to the market with the second most increase in volume.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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