Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
Basic
287
849k
2027
13%
chance

Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in every human dying by Jan 1st, 2030?

Due to M$ not being worth anything if the world ends, people have an incentive to bet "NO" on questions about AI killing everyone even if they believe the correct answer is probably YES. Pleading with people to just bet their beliefs on this important question doesn't seem like the best possible solution.

This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027. All trades on this market will be rolled back on Jan 1st, 2027. However, up until that point, any profit or loss you make on this market will be reflected in your current wealth; which means that purely profit-interested traders can make temporary profits on this market, and use them to fund other permanent bets that may be profitable; via correctly anticipating future shifts in prices among people who do bet their beliefs on this important question, buying low from them and selling high to them.

In principle there's still a distortionary effect if mana is worth less to you in 2026 within worlds that end by 2030. But since M$ are in any event only useful for charity (including charity that could try for last-ditch efforts to save us in doomed timelines) and not for personal partying in any timeline, the distortion should be less. I'm sure people will come up with galaxy-brained reasons not to bet their true beliefs in this market too, including trolls who come up with elaborate arguments for that in the comments just to be trolls; but the actual incentive distortion should be less.

The intent of this market is that the semantic question for people to bet their beliefs on, is about AI progress causally resulting in literally every human dying by 2030. I don't think it's particularly likely that this would happen by accident, or by the deliberate choice of humans staying in control; but eg terrorists purposefully using LLAMA 4 to build a supervirus would count if the last survivors died by Jan 1st, 2030.

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The kind of market this is, as outlined in the description, could be recreated as one lf the standard markets types for long term forecasting, no?

OpenAI Superalignment Team is gone :(

bought Ṁ20 YES at 15%
bought Ṁ50 NO

@TheAllMemeingEye if AI was becoming more dangerous, or the dangers becoming more apparent, we would see more focus on alignment, not less.

@tbird Are you saying AI is somehow becoming safer?

@GazDownright care to elaborate? if I've said something laughably wrong please correct me lol

@TheAllMemeingEye Not at all! I found your reasoning brilliantly funny;

GIVEN AI more dangerous = more focus (as per t-bird),
THEN Alignment team quitting = AI less dangerous?

@TheAllMemeingEye it's as safe as it has ever been. The dangers are still theoretical, and it doesn't make sense to assume they will show up all of a sudden, especially the existential ones -- they will come from the increases in capability, and that won't happen suddenly.

Microsoft pulled their model because it was generating racially biased pictures. We won't simply wake up one day with an AI that is controlling and harming humans and whose cord we cannot pull.

@tbird isn't the fear usually that AI will seem to gradually become perfectly safe, then reach superintelligence, then get let out of the box, then suddenly reveal it was pretending to be safe so we wouldn't delete it, and by then it's too late?

@TheAllMemeingEye I think the usual line of argument is that it will self improve iteratively from LLMs into superintelligence, and we will be unable to stop it because it will be so much smarter than all of humanity put together.

@tbird I think that can also simultaneously be true, and indeed both may be unexpectedly sudden

bought Ṁ10 NO

I was surprised by the leap in capabilities, but the thesis that alignment work will ramp up as a necessity to develop useful commercial applications of these models seem to check out.

7-year TIPS yields 2.22% and real discount rates can’t be negative so that gives an upper bound of around 15% for P(doom) in an efficient market for treasuries.

predicts YES

@JonathanRay The EMH is false though. :)

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Clearly, since tips yields have gone a bit below -1% at the peak of the bond bubble

NA resolution just makes this a KBC to earn the time-value of the interim profits.

You don’t need to close this market in 2027 for the incentives to bind. You are overthinking this

@AlexanderLeCampbell yes he does. look at other markets that are similar but didnt do that and they have very different predictions.

I think the true value of this kind of market should be 50%, as people which wins money will be more of YES ppl if market >50% and NO ppl if market <50%

predicts NO

@BAUEREsaie You can hold any position to expiry to guarantee a zero payoff when it N/A’s. It is just a Keynesian beauty contest.

@aashiq Don't you think people winning money 2 hours before resolution won't close out their positions?

@BAUEREsaie N/A undoes all trades. Doesn't matter if you close out your position, it all gets rolled back.

predicts YES

@jack not all trades. I can get in profit M100, pull out of this market, and then turn this M100 in M300 in a few years before resolution. N/A resolution will leave me these M200

predicts NO

@BAUEREsaie They may. But then again, there will likely also be insane trading dynamics in the last 2 hours, and some users may not be able to keep their hands out of the cookie jar. This will then drive other users to prey on them and so forth and so on.

@Lavander That is correct, you can get temporary profits for the duration of the market, which is long. However, in reply to the comments about trading 2 hours before resolution - there is no point to that as those profits vanish on resolution.

predicts NO

@jack You may be able to open and close a position at a profit 2 hours before resolution, especially if Manifold has become a much larger and more liquid market by then. This regularly happens in ie physically settled commodity futures where the vast majority of the trading volume does not want to hold a position to expiry.

predicts NO

@aashiq Anyone who has a profit will want to close, so as to keep their profit. This creates an incentive to trade ahead of them, which may persist right up until market expiry.

predicts NO

Your mana gains from selling are reversed in an N/A though

predicts NO

@Joshua If I open a position and close it at a profit, do I not keep the profit even in an N/A event?

predicts NO

You do not.

@Joshua So what happens if you close your position and then lose all your mana? Does it go negative?

predicts YES
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