Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.

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will people bet on them? no. it will always be a degen / expert thing.

Do superhuman AI agents count as users?

@jim no

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@Shump what if they're 'ems', accurate emulations of humans?

@jim It's already going to be hard to get the sources to resolve this. I'm going to go with whatever numbers are reported. If the website can't tell whether they're human or AI then I'll just take what they say. For the same reason, bots might get counted. However, if there are different numbers, or a good reason to think that the number given isn't reliable since it includes a large amount of non-human users, then that wouldn't count.

@Shump ok thanks I understand

Does Reddit count? Why or why not?

@colorednoise they do have a prediction market feature

@colorednoise No. That component is not substantial enough. Way less substantial than Betfair.

@colorednoise btw, did you see this in your home page? I was testing something just now.

@Shump nope, notifications

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