Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028? | Manifold

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

154

1.1kṀ14k

2029

64%

chance

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Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.

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Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?

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Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

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