If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
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Conditional on AI wiping out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational? This market is meant to tease apart the components of other AI ex-risk markets, disambiguating AI ex-risk and Platform risk.

This market will resolve yes if humanity is wiped out by 2030 AND Manifold is still around. It will resolve No if humanity is wiped out by 2030 AND Manifold is NOT around. It will resolve N/A if humanity is NOT wiped out by AI by 2030.

I think the fair value of the "Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030?" market should essentially be the product of: P(AI wipes out humanity by 2030), P(Manifold still around | AI wipes out humanity) , and maybe a discount factor for the bettor not being able to collect even if Manifold is around. The second probability is this market.

This is meant as a companion to

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8?r=QWFzaGlxRGhlZXJhajc3ZWI

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I think the fair value of the "Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030?" market should essentially be the product of: P(AI wipes out humanity by 2030), P(Manifold still around | AI wipes out humanity)

You also need to factor in the probability that Manifold is still around given that AI doesn't wipe out humanity.

@MartinRandall this market should trade at 100% :)

the market resolves n/a if ai does not wipe out humanity

predicts YES

@aashiq I agree (for some values of "should"). But the quoted text is about a different market.

Good point!

Let A be the event that AI wipes out humanity by 2030. Let B be the event that Manifold is still around.

Fair value should be [ P(A) P(B | A) ] / [P(A) P(B | A) + (1 - P(A)) P(B | !A) ] . Does that seem right?

Can you clarify the definition of "will Manifold Markets be operational"? Do you mean at the moment AI wipes out humanity? Or does it have to stay operational for some period of time after?

For example, if humanity were wiped out by a pandemic, but the servers kept running for a brief time before all the technological infrastructure collapsed - how does that count?

@jack If humanity is wiped out by a pandemic before 2030, this market resolves N/A because it is conditioned on AI wiping out humanity โ€” not a pandemic.

I mean at the moment the market resolves. If AI wipes out humanity by 2025, and Manifold operates until 2026, this market should somehow resolve to No.

@AashiqDheeraj77eb Ok, that answers the question.

The scenario I was imagining was that the pandemic could have been AI-engineered, and then the servers keep going for some days or whatever until the servers stop working because the humans aren't around to keep it running and the AI is busy doing its own thing.

predicts NO

@jack oh sure, in the case of a humanity-ending AI engineered pandemic where Manifold servers continue to run til 2030 (and step in to resolve markets whose human resolvers are dead!) this market resolves to YES

@aashiq This does not work well to separate the components, because the "AI wipes out humanity" markets resolve as YES if AIs are around and humanity is not; it does not depend on whether the AI did anything to make that happen, as long as it did not prevent it.

@DavidBolin My intention is to resolve this market in accordance with AI causing extinction. I will clarify the market description to make that explicit