If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause. Otherwise, resolves to "no global catastrophe".

See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.

If multiple global catastrophes occur, resolves based on the first.

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

The aggregate of 273 Metaculus community forecasters was 38% on Jul 21, 2023.

See also: