Before the end of 2027, will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets (as appearing in the Manifold Market search for that phrase) be above 50%, at the same time, for at least a week?
This does not include derivative markets such as "Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?"
Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Conditional markets (e.g., "if there is a war between AI and humans with at least x billion human deaths, will AI wipe out humanity") do not count towards the resolution criteria. (AI summary of creator comment)
*Please note that the "AI summary of creator comment" is the exact opposite of my comment. The resolution criteria may soon be edited, but not like that. Currently the most likely edit is something like "markets conditional on the occurrence of X-risks do not count towards the resolution of this market", but that is both confusing an incomplete.
In the meantime, just assume that hacking this market won't work, and don't do it.
1,000
3.00@marvingardens Okay, those don't count :-/
Not sure how to make that rigorous tho, without banning all conditional markets, which I don't think I want to do.
@Duncn I think this is just a subjective-resolution market, "I'll know it when I see it" type. You could put that in the description, and tag it as subjective and meta. As it is there appears to be a tension between the question attempting to present itself as fairly objective, and you wanting to call audibles in the future to approach your secret inner true resolution criteria.
That's just my opinion; I'm not the arbiter of manifold's culture
@marvingardens I think there's a difference between being subjective and people trying to hack it, which should be excluded by default.
@DavidBolin The market creator has already specified that markets which are not created to hack this may still be deemed too ridiculous to clarify. I don't think intentionality is all that relevant here
@Duncn Now here's an interesting new feature.... the AI interpretation of my comment is in the description, and is the exact opposite of what I said.
@IsaacKing My assumption was that it would primarily just include markets that were open, but I think if it was a good market with a qualifying question that spent enough time high enough, and was just marked N/A because the poster got bored (or similar), then those would count. However, a market resolving to 0% or 100% has no bearing on this market; this is a question about their active probabilities while bettors are betting.
To be clear, this market closes and resolves at the end of 2027; it may be that all of the long-term markets resolve YES (or N/A), but after that time.
@Duncn I'm not asking about their resolution status, I'm asking about their resolution criteria. The incentives in this market are very different from those in this market.
@DavidBolin Search isn't showing me that market. But I will exclude anything too ridiculous. If you remember the exact question, I can give you a more exact answer.
@DavidBolin Oh. That would not count; I will be looking specifically at markets that use AI to mean artificial intelligence, humanity to mean all humans, and 'wipe out' to mean kill.