Which happens first: Starship / Superheavy recovery or second crewed Starliner flight?
Starship recovery82%

Which one comes first?

Starship / Superheavy: Both stages from the same launch, with the Starship making it to space. They both have to be intact and at rest. Details the same as these questions:


Starliner: Must launch with crew and lift off intact.

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The market is overestimating starship or doesn't realize that it takes landing both stages to resolve. Booster Catch (already a bonkers and impossibly difficult task)might happen soon enough but, they plan on catching both the booster and the ship with the chopsticks for reusability. I don't think that's happening until V2.

Starliner is messed up, but just might be able to pull another one off if the first one is mostly a success.

@notarealuser So, how soon do you think it will happen?


alright. this is bad. i am selling the position.

I was kinda skeptical of how soon that market thinks it will happen, but people also think they'll have a second tower by ~ start of 2025:


Tbh I'm skeptical too, we have seen zero hardware for ship catch. We haven't even heard a plausible design that they want to build. I've got a lot of No on that market.

Hope it comes up in the eda tour/interview, would be interesting to know their plans and timeline.

Right I think people are voting Yes because they expect landing legs, and I don't. That explains a lot of the discrepancy.

bought Ṁ100 Starship recovery

I don't think the market is overestimating it. They just expect Musk to eventually succeed and the Starliner program to be cancelled.

I'm not sure whether I expect Starliner to be cancelled, but I definitely expect further delays on the next launch. I'd be quite surprised by a Q1 2025 launch, and even H1 2025 seems in jeopardy to me.


I try to think in months, rather than calendar years.

Do I think NASA will schedule a Starliner mission to launch in the next 12 months? Maybe, but unlikely. 20%?

Meanwhile, in the next 12 months I expect SpaceX to do 4 to 6 more test flights. Let's call it 5. Will they land both? They'd have to solve SS heat shield issues and have a very precise reentry, and be comfortable with risking the tower. Combined, very unlikely, 5%.

How about 18 months? Starliner: 40%. SpaceX: 25%

24 months? Starliner: 66%, SpaceX: 50%

Hmm. Super unclear. Maybe I shouldn't bet yet.