Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? | Manifold

Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?

️ Technology Space Rockets Starliner Boeing

Basic

22

Ṁ1.3k

2026

59%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves No if there is no second crewed Starliner Flight.

Resolves Yes if Second Crewed Flight of Starliner takes Crew to ISS and brings them back on Earth safely, irrespective of delays.

If problems arise such as Helium Leak or Thruster Malfunction, will still Resolve Yes if crew is brought home safe on Starliner.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

I see this as yet another proxy market for the question "will the Starliner program be cancelled without another launch ever occurring?" I believe that answer is YES, so I am arbitraging all the related markets, like when the next launch will occur and whether the program will be "curtailed."

they have a minimum of two launch contract. i think they will complete that. not anytime soon, but they probably will.

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Bet on Next Crewed Starliner

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Related questions

When will the first Starliner astronaut return to earth?

Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?

Will the next successful crewed landing on the Moon be done in a Starship derived vehicle?

Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?

Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?

Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight?

Will there be a NASA report on Starliner problems?