“NASA and Boeing are continuing to rigorously test the Starliner propulsion system in preparation for two potential flights next year,” NASA’s commercial crew program manager Steve Stich said in a statement.

The next planned mission, Starliner-1 is schedule no earlier than April 2026 and will be a cargo test run to the ISS. This is still pending additional tests and certification before it is confirmed, the AP report added. If the cargo mission is successful, then NASA will plan crew flight missions with the Starliner before the ISS is decommissioned in 2030.
https://www.livemint.com/science/news/nasa-cuts-astronaut-trips-boeing-starliner-flight-four-next-mission-test-cargo-unmanned-schedule-april-2026-musk-spacex-11764012636642.html

Bought some a few days ago when I heard crew were removed so likely a cargo test flight before crewed flights. I was hoping starliner-1 name would be kept for crewed flights. Wonder if it is still possible that they give it a mission name that includes test in it even if they are going to count it as one of six likely reduced to 4 "operational" missions?

Seems like they are doing extra testing before risking crew and I have a bit of a feel that this should be enough for question to resolve yes but I suppose the comment is clear enough and the question specifically says before the starliner-1 flight. My fault for having an interpretation that Starliner-1 flight is the first operational crewed flight which may well turn out to be wrong.

@ChristopherRandles Yeah I feel like this is a challenging edge case that I'm glad we got a bit clarified about before it happened, but there's no way this is going to end up as a satisfying resolution. My current expectation is that it will be an uncrewed "operational" flight named "Starliner-1" and therefore this will resolve No, despite it being in practice another test flight. Sigh.

Anyway if things end up this confused I'll seek out an uninvolved second opinion on the resolution.

What if Starliner flies an unscrewed cargo mission to ISS before Starliner 1?

Tbh its about time they fly an unscrewed mission

When I wrote the question I didn't really think about that possibility; I was basically assuming it would be called another flight test mission. I think the best interpretation is that if it's called a test mission, this resolves positively. If it's called Starliner-1, and labeled as an operational mission, it resolves negatively (whether crewed or otherwise). (Noting that another "test" mission could also be a crewed mission, just as CFT-1 is a crewed test mission.) So the weird edge case is something named an "operational" mission, but not "Starliner-1". I'm inclined to think this should resolve No in that case (it's not "another test flight before the first ..."), but I could see a case for "it's a test even if they're not calling it that". I think it's simplest not to second-guess what counts as a test mission.

I suppose one could write a question for "will there be an uncrewed Starliner flight before the next crewed flight" or similar, if you thought the possibility was likely.

Basically this market btw

Yes, thank you! I'd forgotten about that one.

I think between that and other stuff we have most of the scenarios covered? I think we've got forecasts on Berger's entire scenario here:

I guess if Starliner is cancelled this resolves No? Or N/A?

If it's cancelled without any further flights, this question will resolve No.