Will Starship land on legs on Earth after returning from orbit?
14
240Ṁ40732026
1.6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
They landed on legs for the suborbital hops. They will probably land on legs on the moon and on Mars. But for Earth recovery the plan is to be caught by chopsticks. Will we see them change that plan and return to landing legs?
Only counts if it's returning from orbit, that way I hope to skip any attempts for testing moon landing legs.
Resolves Yes if Starship lands on legs after returning from orbit.
Resolves No the first time Starship successfully gets caught by the chopsticks without blowing up or other major issues. Minor tile damage or something like that is fine.
This is only about the second stage, booster doesn't matter.
Market will be extended as needed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?
24% chance
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
2/12/26
When will Starship complete an orbit?
When will Starship land on a launch pad?
When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers?
Will Starship land on Mars to return the MSR samples?
33% chance
WHERE will Starship first land on Mars?
When will Starship reach orbit?
Will a Starship land on Mars before the MSR samples are picked up?
74% chance
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?