Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, during SpaceX's 14th integrated Starship flight test (commonly referred to as Starship Flight 14 or IFT-14), SpaceX executes an active attempt to catch the first-stage Super Heavy booster using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms (Mechazilla).

• What constitutes a "catch attempt"? A catch attempt is defined as the Super Heavy booster returning to a launch pad (e.g., Starbase, Texas) and attempting a landing burn to guide itself into the launch tower's arms for recovery.

• Success is not required for a YES resolution: If the booster guides itself to the tower to attempt a catch, the market resolves to YES even if the catch ultimately fails (e.g., the booster crashes, explodes, or damages the tower during the catch sequence).

• What resolves to NO? The market will resolve to NO if:

  • The booster is intentionally diverted to a water landing (such as a splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico) without attempting a tower catch.

  • The booster is destroyed or fails during launch, ascent, stage separation, or the boostback burn, preventing a return-to-launch-site (RTLS) catch attempt at the tower.

• Ambiguities & Fallbacks:

  • This market is specifically about the first-stage Super Heavy booster. A catch attempt of only the second-stage Starship upper stage (the ship) does not satisfy the criteria unless a booster catch is also attempted during the same flight.

  • This market resolves based on the flight officially designated by SpaceX as "Flight 14" (or IFT-14), regardless of the launch date. If Flight 14 is officially canceled or the numbering is skipped, the market will resolve to N/A.

  • The primary source of truth will be the official SpaceX live stream, SpaceX's official X updates, and reputable spaceflight media (such as NASASpaceflight or Spaceflight Now).

Background

As of mid-2026, SpaceX has completed 12 integrated Starship test flights, with Flight 12 launching on May 22, 2026. Flight 13 is currently slated to launch as early as July 2026. Following Flight 12, which suffered booster engine failures leading to a hard ocean splashdown, SpaceX has continued refining its Super Heavy V3 design and launch pad infrastructure.

SpaceX famously demonstrated the capability to catch a Super Heavy booster on its fifth flight test in October 2024. While Flight 14 is highly anticipated for its potential "Orbital Return Demo" and possible first-ever attempt to catch the Starship upper stage (the ship), this market focuses exclusively on whether SpaceX will simultaneously attempt to catch the Super Heavy booster during the Flight 14 mission.

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