Any expression of intent counts, even if it is "obviously a joke", e.g. a Tweet saying "Who knows? Maybe I will run in 2028." counts.
Note: on Jan 29 he joked about it which resulted in the prior market resolving YES.
Must be from today or later.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ403 | |
| 2 | Ṁ239 | |
| 3 | Ṁ191 | |
| 4 | Ṁ165 | |
| 5 | Ṁ65 |
in https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/21/trump-third-term-white-house-022002
"Should I run again? You tell me.”"
I think this clearly means YES. Reason:
imagine he said "should I steal 100$ from the till?" when doing such was currently illegal. This is "asking if one should do illegal action". Saying "he would only do it if were made legal before he actually ran" doesn't excuse it. If you don't get this, imagine if someone said "should we kill X person?" and then if X objected the excuse was "we'd only do that if X were made legal beforehand". That's a very weak excuse. he's clearly joking/flirting/suggesting doing this thing
@WilliamGunn yes seriously. who does this kind of talk convince? I suppose it gets moldbug's vote (as if) but like to literally any patriotic normie it's such a turnoff, on the left or the right. I am still a doge/elon fan but this kind of joking around is horrible.
@Ernie It's a pattern with him. He "jokes" about stuff before he does it like a cat plays with a mouse.
@WilliamGunn yeah i mean I still just have to be short him actually doing this or even trying seriously, in 2028, even with full assumptions that he's successful, healthy, competent, and popular then. Would people actually stand for it? It just feels so much like the call to rebel against inappropriate electoral behavior would be insanely strong. Plus what, is JD Vance just doing be like "sure, I'll be VP again and not run myself?" I mean, I've been wrong before but geez all it is going to take to violate our multi-century peaceful transition of power system is just a guy trying it twice?
@Ernie by 2028, US long-standing institutions will be destroyed and information controlled. He'll say he's the US democracy savior and that people need him to fight against whatever makes most sense in four years. Most people will even believe it's true. The others won't be able to do anything anyway.
@Quroe nice market. I also created one that could be a subset of yours:
https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/will-the-us-judiciary-remain-indepe
By description this seems clearly yes. He suggested doing something currently Illegal as a "joke".
@SusanneinFrance thanks for the link. I'm a bit on the fence. I agree he is hinting and definitely being weird and somewhat threatening by mentioning another term, but the title of the claim says "express intent to run". I was hoping for a clearer statement either way