Question is spanning a number of possible outcomes, including Trump winning in '24 and then seeking a third term.
He needs to say it. If his proxies float it and then he backs away from the idea it won't count.
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an announcement to count towards a YES resolution, it must be definitive.
Conditional statements (e.g., "I could," "I might," "I am thinking about") will not count.
Definitive statements (e.g., "I am running," "I will run") will count.
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I have not actually read the details on what Trump said, but my impression is that it wasn't a terribly formal or detailed announcement. "Made comments about" might be a better description. Usually "announce" and "filed paperwork" go together, right? But the question isn't "filed campaign paperwork" any more than it is "made comments about". I think given past creator comments, this ends up hinging on whether he was "serious" about it?
@EvanDaniel given past comments, it seems like it's less about whether he was serious and more about whether the statements are conditional or definitive
@AaronSimansky I don’t step into markets like this nearly as often as I used to. In this case, @EvanDaniel I think the closest word of God we got did define a pretty clear line, and the line (conditional vs. definitive phrasing) was certainly crossed.
@Panfilo You flagged the mods for a comment at a White House Correspondents dinner? 🤦♂️
The running to the parents behaviour on this site is so tiring. If its legit, a comment in a more serious situation will happen. Chill
@Panfilo Not necessarily. No action here, or taking a few days to reply is reasonable to me. Getting worked up before then is unreasonable to me.
I doubt we'll align on that though and I did my unnecessary venting.
I was actually looking to see what people thought the odds were of one of Trump's family running in 2028 and got distracted. Has anyone seen a market like that? I only found some mentioning Donald, and some mentioning Ivanka.
@Panfilo, sorry! I was meant to reply to Genzy in the thread below. I am out of line singling you out
@Chimpey because he has already said it, clearly, just in a joking manner and no one thinks he is serious about it either
@Chimpey his phrasing is absolutely explicit. whether he will actually take the actions tho, idk. trump is rlly wonky, and i wouldn't put any money on him. however, the consittuion is extremely explicit about this, i don't think he would be that audacious. but the insurrection makes me think otherwise.
@Chimpey Pretty much every single insane thing he's actually committed to, was "an obvious joke" the first time he mouthed his intentions. All of his "jokes" are Schrödinger's jokes - no way to tell whether he was joking or dead serious about this one either, before opening the ballot box.
https://x.com/i/status/2080844661162233857
Trump: "I am pleased to announce my intention to run for a fourth term as President of the United States. I will be doing that…I won three times, now I'm going to do it again. I'm going to do it…I won three times. Did very well the second time, by the way. Rigged election."
@Siebe correspondents' dinner known for presidential stand-up routines. Here's Obama saying something not dissimilar:
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/25/remarks-president-white-house-correspondents-association-dinner
"Apparently some folks really want to see a pot-smoking socialist in the White House. (Laughter.) We could get a third Obama term after all. (Laughter and applause.) It could happen."
@realDonaldTrump if what he said is conditional (I could, I might, I am thinking about, people want me to) it doesn't count. If it's definitve (I am running, I will run) it does count.
@JoshuaWilkes since your response to this question about seriousness was that it would depend entirely on the explicit phrasing, this market can now resolve Yes. His phrasing was definitive, even though it was in the context of a joke.
@snazzlePop Argument for NO would be that he did not actually announce he was running. He made a joke that included those literal words, but in a context that made it clear it was not actually an announcement. Similar to if he said the words on SNL.
Also, in the context of the question starting this thread, “serious“ seems to be used to refer to strength of conviction rather than joking vs. not joking. I wouldn’t say he was “floating” the idea here