Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Question

Will there be a major change with Trump's election such that the U.S. does not live in a traditional US Democracy anymore?  Such conditions would include things like: Trump running for a 3rd term, declaration of Martial Law at any point, removing Supreme Court Justices or ignoring a material order from SCOTUS, Executive Branch overturning a certified election result, refusing a transition of power, etc.      This will be certified "yes" if a major event occurs that is considered a fundamental ending of our democracy as we know it and multiple major news organizations declare as much.

**Update 11/15: This has received a lot more attention lately and more than I expected, so let me clarify a few things to try and help add some details around resolution and answer questions:

There will likely be many norms shattered, lines crossed, flaws in our system exposed and maybe even illegal activity over the next four years.  This question is NOT asking about whether those will occur; this is about a fundamental change in our system from the American form of democracy as we have known it in modern times to something more closely aligned to a dictatorship, autocracy, theocracy, oligarchy, kingdom, etc.

In order to determine what makes us no longer living in a democracy as we know it, it helps to outline what I would say are the key components of our democracy:  checks and balances, free and fair elections, the rule of law/adherence to constitution, peace and order, federalism, due process, the freedoms of speech, press, and association and obviously having an executive as opposed to a king/dictator.

I will weigh in and give some examples of things I would/wouldn’t consider as a resolving event for each of those key components of our democracy:

checks and balances: As we currently have a majority republican legislature and supreme court, there will obviously be a decrease in our “checks and balances”.  As these were elected/appointed in the normal process and still have the ability to exercise their power, that of itself does not nullify our democracy. The following example would not count for a resolution: Senate allows recess appointments, as this is constitutionally allowed and has been done historically.  Would count: Trump ignores a material order from the Supreme Court (as this would demonstrates the judicial check is gone)

free and fair elections: would not count - generally applicable new federal voting laws that may have an indirect benefit to republicans, such as voter id requirements.  would count - voting laws that essentially guarantee republican control of government, such as an increase of 5 electoral votes for all rural states or federal gerrymandering of state’s house maps.

the rule of law/adherence to constitution: Would not count- Trumps issues executive orders that are later found to be unconstitutional (provided he does not continue to enforce such unconstitutional orders).  It is not uncommon for orders/laws to be passed that are found later to be unconstitutional.  Would count - Running for a third term despite 22nd amendment* (See below for further clarification)

peace and order: This is important because if we have a complete breakdown of society, then we can not function as a democracy..  Would not count - occasional violence or large protests that get out of control.  Would count - Trump declares martial law resulting from significant internal unrest, which is maintained for an extended time or is used to quell fundamental rights.

federalism: this has already been seriously eroded over the years, as the fed government has even forced state laws through funding holdbacks (see, e.g. drinking age requirements) and “over reach” on federal laws regulating activities typically delegated to the states.  So this would have to be something dramatic.  Would not count - passing a federal law on abortion or holding back funds unless states adopt a law/policy (as long as the law was not an infringement on some other aspect of democracy).  Would count: federal assumption of state roles, such as removal of governors or state/local police in favor of federal appointees.

due process: would not count - investigations into, or even charges, of one or two “political enemies”, provided it goes through standard, fair court process.   would count - arrests of clear political enemies that do not go through normal process (e.g. military tribunals for civilians, no trials at all, etc.) or mass arrests of large numbers of “political” enemies to create a chilling effect

freedom of speech: would not count: shutting down a protest here and there, even if it ended up violent due to escalated tensions, provided it was not sustained.  Would count: arresting anyone who says something bad about Trump on social media or using extreme violence to shut down an otherwise peaceful protest (like Tiananmen square) on multiple occasions or being explicit it will happen again such that it stops all protests.  Thus,...

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 27% chance (776 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).