Resolution in 2033 seems pretty extreme - I'd bet, but I don't want to wait eight years. Can we pull it back to, say, 2029?

@JTBooth Yeah, that’s a good point. To be honest I think he will challenge before his second term ends.

However, I don’t know if trump might try after his second term. But ultimately, I think you’re right.

Ain't no way this is at 40%

@Tiger it should be 99, considering it should have already resolved YES

@Alex231a How? The trump hats?

@Tiger the fundraising in the form of merch and the many times he and the people around him have said it, yes.

in 2028 Trump will be: 1) 82 and declining in Bidenesque fashion 2) very probably unpopular af with a hostile media and public tired of his shtick 3) have cratered Republican political capital by getting spanked in the midterms, and losing special elections all over the place 4) probably tired of the rigors of the presidency (i know) 5) not unlikely in the middle of some crisis 6) probably ded?

there's zero reason to think that under these circumstances he would still have the willpower or necessary political capital to even attempt running for a third term.

the only reason you should bet YES in this market is if you believe Trump's presidency will be successful, and that he will not get tired of being President or that we'll be in the middle of WW3 or some shit

a good analogy here is Biden running for POTUS again - he only had the gumption to try because elite Dem circles whipped themselves into believing that his Presidency was secretly successful, and crucially, Dems had a decent midterm. If they had lost like 40 house seats and multiple senate seats, while he was at 38% approval, the backlash and opposition would have been public and obvious

@dlin007 Trump has done so much illegal s**t already that he'd go to jail if another president was elected, so he has full incentives to avoid it at all costs. In 4 years, he may have dismantled the judiciary and media. He has a team of yes-men who will oppose his will less than Biden's team did even if he'll run at 82. He has already shown he is able to change public perception drastically, regardless of his past actions. I don't see why you should doubt his willpower or political capital.

Seems underpriced? How is this not just a derivative market on Trump's death?

@AnonymousFlounder I think this the most likely to happen: Trump directs the military to keep him in office. Then that would YES. He could take action before he dies.

@Tiger You're right. But is there any scenario where Trump is alive and not braindead where he doesn't try for a third term?

@AnonymousFlounder The chance is iniftesimal. But I mean... there's still a chance?

Maybe if the public is mad at him enough. Doubt it though

I honestly think the USA will have a civil war if he tries and succeeds.

@DanHomerick Even if there was a loophole in the Constitution, I wonder why every president after Rossegelt quit after two.

Answer: They knew the public would be mad at them.

If you're into predicting whether or not Trump will do something crazy:

Another Trump themed one:

I feel like there's a 25%ish chance Trump dies before then

@copiumarc Yeah. So far, I have a plan to resolve this market "no" if that happens (and he didn't take a formal action yet). Do you have a suggestion on this? To be frank, I think that DT might die as well.

@Tiger I feel like in that case it should resolve NO unless Trump has already taken action like 22nd Amendment stuff. Idk if an announcement should resolve it YES if he dies, bc in the case of an announcement without real action and no Trump death we would probably wait and see

@copiumarc Thanks! That’s my view too

@copiumarc yeah, I calculated the probability based on the US mortality table I found online, came out as 22% (the president surely isn't a random draw from the population, but still)

@StepanBakhmarin What factors does the table consider

@Tiger
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
It's an empirical table, shows the probability for a person to die between X and X + 1 years of age if they are alive at X. So... all the factors I guess?
I did some math with it, for the sake of having fun with math, will share it if you want.
(btw my bad, the answer I got is 23%, not 22%... not that it matters...)

@StepanBakhmarin I found it to be cool! Thanks.

Also, isn’t it a bit creepy that the government can predict our lifespans…

@Tiger hm, I wouldn't say that I find it creepy. If you are running a country you are really supposed to know this stuff. It gets creepy when it gets to personal information, but I don't think I ever felt that way about a population-wise statistic

@StepanBakhmarin True.

Although if it ran into personal info, which I wouldn't rule out...

@StepanBakhmarin How did you come up with that?, the table has 78y/o male at 5% not 22???

@MarySmith in a year; the term's four years