Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a formal attempt to serve a third term as President of the United States after having already served two terms. This includes but is the not limited to:
Filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for a third term
Pursuing legal challenges to the 22nd Amendment
Attempting to assume the presidency through other means (such as becoming Vice President and then assuming the presidency)
The market resolves NO if Trump does not make any formal attempt to serve a third term by January 20, 2033 (the end of what would be a third term if he were elected in 2028).
Background
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, explicitly states that "no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." Trump has previously served one term as president (2017-2021) and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election.
Trump has made comments suggesting interest in serving beyond two terms. He has floated scenarios such as running as Vice President under JD Vance and then assuming the presidency, though constitutional scholars consider these ideas legally unfeasible.
Considerations
Any attempt to serve a third term would face significant constitutional barriers. Overcoming these would require either a constitutional amendment (requiring approval from two-thirds of Congress and ratification by three-fourths of states) or novel legal interpretations that would likely face immediate court challenges.
Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Scenarios Considered as a Formal Attempt:
Military Directive: Directing the military to keep him in office would qualify as a formal attempt.
Vice Presidency Trick: Using a vice presidential maneuver to assume the presidency is counted.
Speaker Strategy: Becoming Speaker to prompt resignations in order to take power would be treated as a formal attempt.
Amendment Initiative: Significantly pushing Congress to pass an amendment to overcome the 22nd Amendment counts as a formal attempt.
1,000People are also trading
@Quroe Yes. Although I’d bet that anyone else pushing for a third term would be acting on Trumps behalf.
@Tiger A thought experiment:
Joe Schmoe makes a speech in the Senate floor advocating they vote to repeal the 22nd Amendment. Trump says Joe Schmoe is 'a good man' and does nothing beyond that.
Do you resolve YES?
@Quroe No, I don’t think so. It would need to be much more serious. I think one rep already introduced a bill that would allow Trump to run again. But so far, it has gone nowhere.
@Tiger Can you provide the most borderline hypothetical you can think of that would just barely push you over the edge to resolve YES as a benchmark?
@Quroe If he’s directing the military to keep him in office, or using the vice presidency trick, and maybe becoming speaker to have the people ahead of him to resign. Significantly pushing congress to pass an admendment would count. So far, nothing that level…
@Tiger Got it. It sounds like there will still be significant 'context matters-ness' to this when you say "significantly pushing."
I'm of the opinion that this administration does not like to make things cut and dry for us market makers and internet historians; plausible deniability is a strong tool they've learned to utilize.
If you can nail down what "significantly pushing" (from above comment) or "pursing legal challenges" (from description) means in concrete terms, I think I would be more comfortable to trade in confidence. I'm mostly going to go off of the phrase "formal attempt" (from the description) as my guiding light for now.
Cheers! 🥂
@Quroe Yeah, I get it. However, trying to serve a third term is a big thing. I’m sure people will notice.