In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8
Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term. Who is right?
I use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here. Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president. This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.
Resolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024
Resolves 'No' if there is no evidence for Trump attempting to run for a third term by the end of 2032.
Edit: If Trump was making a joking about running for 3rd term president that wouldn’t count. In case that it is difficult to determine if Trump is joking or not, I’ll consult with traders here.
Related questions
@ChrisEdwards If the attempt was not made before he dies, or if evidence of his attempt was not discovered, I’ll have to resolve this market to No.
This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.
Trump says a lot of random weird things just to sound funny, I think in most cases this resolves YES Shapiro would correctly say that he didn't make a serious try at running so destiny's guess wasn't right.
@jacksonpolack exactly. The odds of Trump joking about this are near 100%. Hopefully market creator has a sense of humor and doesn't just go off of misleading reports in the failing New York Times.
@AlQuinn I don’t intend to include jokes. but would we run into situation that we cant determine if Trump is jokkng or not?
ill consult with traders here if Trump jokingly said he will run for a Third term
@AmmonLam the media routinely reports Trump jokes as being serious, so as long as we can discuss before relying on something like that, I think we're good. Ideally I would think actual action taken by Trump in the direction of running would be a good trigger for YES (not necessarily filing or trying to file paperwork, but having an "Elect Trump 2028" rally, for example).
Seems obviously greater than 15% to me.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1142157838153895941
The criteria looks easy to fulfill. He needs to keep his political campaign machine running to fund everything he wants to do. Just ONE little public statement!??! At any point in the 4+ years after being elected? So easy.
@Eliza If a president gets elected for the 2nd time he would normally stop accepting political donations? Or what. Under what pretext can he continue his political campaign program to get more money, other than running for a 3rd term?
@AmmonLam So if he doesn’t win in 2024 (which is currently ~40% according to Manifold), this resolves NO? If so, this market should cap out at ~40%, which seems to “prove” Destiny wrong even if Trump would definitely have run in 2028 if he had won in 2024.