Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?
42
2kṀ8542
2029
29%
chance

resolves YES if

  • trump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time

  • other republicans campaign trump as a party candidate

  • he wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running

resolves NO if

  • trump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close

this market will resolve NO if legislation is introduced/passed that makes a 3rd term legally possible, but trump decides not to run by the end of the election

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