Derek Frendo's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -15.97
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Derek Frendo bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will there be at least 3 Destiny fans in the top-5 leaderboard of the Destiny.gg group by 2023?NOṀ10
- Will there be at least 3 Destiny fans in the top-5 leaderboard of the Destiny.gg group by 2023?NOṀ10
- Will there be at least 3 Destiny fans in the top-5 leaderboard of the Destiny.gg group by 2023?NOṀ10
90%