Hogwarts Legacy is an immersive, open-world action RPG set in the world first introduced in the Harry Potter books. It is to be released on February 10.
Metascore is a popular ranking of games, movies, shows and music based on a weighted average of the world's most respected critics.
https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/hogwarts-legacy
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Metascore will be checked on February 17.
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This should resolve YES when the exact score is >85.0, not when the digits displayed are 86.
As of writing, the exact metascore is 1339/16 = 83.6875, which is rounded and displayed as "84".
Otherwise, the resolution criteria must read "metascore greater than 85.5", since that's the exact score at which the website displays "86".
@daniel Even so, I would argue the spirit of the question is "Metascore will be displayed as 86 or more". If they have weighting rules stating that it happens at 86.0 or 85.51 is besides the point IMHO.
@daniel If it is greater than 85.0, the only way for that to happen right now is 2 critics to review >95, 3 critics review > 91, or 4 critics review >90
I imagine we can expect 10+ more reviews between now and the 17th. Very likely this will turn favorable. A few negative reviews are weighing the score down quite a bit. If at least 6 of 10 reviews come back 80+ (my math may be wrong here and assuming no critic decides to deviate below a 60) it should easily beat an 86.
@EugeneBixby There's only 1 review pending, and I imagine any reviewers who were not granted early access would be weighted less.
It would take a considerable amount of reviews (like you say, 10) to push the score above 85, and there is only evidence of one review that is to come. No other reviewers have "started" reviews.
@Gen if 6+ reviews come out within the next 5 days you should reply to this market, saying "Color me shocked!"
@EugeneBixby If there are 6+ new reviews averaging over 80 I will comment that. I'm not saying there won't be more reviews, but I think there is a reasonable amount of boycotting (non-reviewing) and political-reviewing such that the weightings will be substantially lower for reviews that are yet to come.
I expect that there will be 3-4 additional reviews (total 16/17/18) when this market resolves, and that the new reviews will average below 85.
Any reviewer who didn't get early access and enjoys the game enough to put time into finishing it and experiencing real depth (like the pending wccftech review) will take too long to finish their review. That reviewer had put in 30 hours over a week ago, and still hasn't published their final review, though I expect their score will be high.
If you want me to commit to something, my best estimate would be 17 or 18 reviews, and a score of exactly 85. Not greater than.