Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 85?
Basic
527
183k
resolved Feb 17
Resolved
NO

Hogwarts Legacy is an immersive, open-world action RPG set in the world first introduced in the Harry Potter books. It is to be released on February 10.

Metascore is a popular ranking of games, movies, shows and music based on a weighted average of the world's most respected critics.

https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/hogwarts-legacy

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Metascore will be checked on February 17.

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Ṁ1 of profit, hell yeah

predicted NO

Any shockers in this comment section?

predicted NO

Metascore is now 83.

predicted NO

@Khaos how did you get ahold of, and lose so much money in such a short period? lol

predicted NO

@DesTiny Lots of people like using the + button to buy more virtual currency!

predicted NO

@Brooke I guess that’s true

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is this going to resolve now?

predicted NO

nvm saw it will resolve tomorrow

predicted NO

@Nathan yeah lol

This should resolve YES when the exact score is >85.0, not when the digits displayed are 86.

As of writing, the exact metascore is 1339/16 = 83.6875, which is rounded and displayed as "84".

Otherwise, the resolution criteria must read "metascore greater than 85.5", since that's the exact score at which the website displays "86".

Nevermind, seems their weighting is kept secret, even though it seems to be a simple arithmetic average of the converted 0-100 scores on several games I checked.

predicted NO

@daniel Even so, I would argue the spirit of the question is "Metascore will be displayed as 86 or more". If they have weighting rules stating that it happens at 86.0 or 85.51 is besides the point IMHO.

@daniel If it is greater than 85.0, the only way for that to happen right now is 2 critics to review >95, 3 critics review > 91, or 4 critics review >90

predicted NO

@EugeneBixby any chance I can get a “colour me shocked” from you?

predicted YES

@Gen We have two days /cope

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@Gen 2 more reviews just dropped

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@EugeneBixby It’s still in my range but I would say I am mildly surprised

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based @PatMyron

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@PatMyron take my shares friend they're yours :)

Metascore as of 2/13 11:52am PT

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@tbone_steak That's PS5 score. PC is still 84 😌

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@HenriThunberg this plus it has to be greater than 85

@Dre0ne Greater than 85 may still display 85, just the percentage must be >85.

I'm chasing my losses on this one, whewie.

I imagine we can expect 10+ more reviews between now and the 17th. Very likely this will turn favorable. A few negative reviews are weighing the score down quite a bit. If at least 6 of 10 reviews come back 80+ (my math may be wrong here and assuming no critic decides to deviate below a 60) it should easily beat an 86.

@EugeneBixby There's only 1 review pending, and I imagine any reviewers who were not granted early access would be weighted less.

It would take a considerable amount of reviews (like you say, 10) to push the score above 85, and there is only evidence of one review that is to come. No other reviewers have "started" reviews.

predicted NO

@Gen Where do you find that info?

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It doesn't stop critics from adding reviews, but I would be shocked if there were 10 new reviews who are yet to start writing, a week following release.

predicted YES

@Gen if 6+ reviews come out within the next 5 days you should reply to this market, saying "Color me shocked!"

predicted NO

@EugeneBixby If there are 6+ new reviews averaging over 80 I will comment that. I'm not saying there won't be more reviews, but I think there is a reasonable amount of boycotting (non-reviewing) and political-reviewing such that the weightings will be substantially lower for reviews that are yet to come.

I expect that there will be 3-4 additional reviews (total 16/17/18) when this market resolves, and that the new reviews will average below 85.

Any reviewer who didn't get early access and enjoys the game enough to put time into finishing it and experiencing real depth (like the pending wccftech review) will take too long to finish their review. That reviewer had put in 30 hours over a week ago, and still hasn't published their final review, though I expect their score will be high.

If you want me to commit to something, my best estimate would be 17 or 18 reviews, and a score of exactly 85. Not greater than.

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