Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?
2024
53%
chance

Within two weeks of release. Market resolves "No" if there is no manifesto by the end of 2023.

Edit 1/7/2023: For this market to resolve "Yes" Destiny must either watch the video released by Mr. Girl or read the article. If Destiny reacts to someone watching the video or reading the article the market will also resolve "Yes". Short clips will not count, Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream.

Edit 3/13/2023: Due to length and nature of manifesto evolving extensively, I'm going to offer a final clarification to this market. There is probably no criteria which will satisfy everyone, but I think this update embodies the original spirit of the market and remains in line with the previous update. In addition, I also think it's likely that it will be obvious once the dust has settled which direction the market should resolve. This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the article. Given the article's extensive length, singling out only a handful of particular sections (even if the sections are the most rhetorically significant) will not count. However, seeing as it is unrealistic that Destiny will read all 100+ pages of the article on stream, an engagement which involves skimming through the entire article, or skipping sections he finds irrelevant or uninteresting will still count towards YES. He does not need to respond to every point in the article, nor does he have to finish it, but if he engages with the larger revelations and analysis the market will resolve YES. Extensive discussion of the article will only count towards YES if that discussion encompasses a breadth of the article's content.

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Tiltzer avatar
Tiltzersold Ṁ745 of YES

Just one more edit bro

HIPSTERPOTAMUS avatar
HIPSTERPOTAMUS

I’ve closed my position so I have no horse in the race, but it seems quite clear to me that market maker is either:

1) unsatisfied that last stream counts as coverage. So NO unless he discusses the article further in a future stream.

2) leaning YES, but avoiding an immediate resolution in anticipation of future coverage which will satisfy NO holders

In both scenarios, there is a large need to look forward to Destiny’s next stream, especially since by then the actual content and ramifications of the article will be well understood. If his coverage consists of 2 minutes of off hand comments I’d suspect a victory for NO. If instead we see 10-20 minutes of ranting and discussion about the ‘breadth of the’ article from Destiny I’d suspect victory for YES (particularly if we see any reaction from him to Mr Girl’s recent interviews which seems likely). The market where it is at seems quite fine. If the market deviates from ~65% before the next stream, I’ll buy a position

swigswoog avatar
swigswoogis predicting YES at 70%

@Apencer retard, care to weigh in?

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 70%

@swigswoog You bought all your shares after the final clarification, you have no reason to be complaining lol

I will say though, Apencer should at least change the close date to the real close date

swigswoog avatar
swigswoogis predicting YES at 69%

@Gen the time it's taking to resolve is definitely a valid reason to complain. I got alimony due

AutomaticOsprey avatar
Automatic Ospreyis predicting NO at 68%

@swigswoog seems like youre using an alt account, lol to that

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 68%

@swigswoog Ohh you actually think this is going to resolve YES 💀

swigswoog avatar
swigswoogis predicting YES at 66%
johnleoks avatar
johnleoksbought Ṁ620 of NO

Bump

memestock avatar
meme stockis predicting YES at 72%

This market has been argued into such a retarded spot by the degenerate autists. This market started out so vague that what Destiny has already done would count to resolve YES. Now that wasn't enough for whatever autism reason some retard will surely trot out so it's been changes such that he needs to read the whole 100k schizopost on stream for it to resolve YES. No reasonable person expects Destiny to cover the whole fucking article when 85% of it is transcripts of conversations he was a first party participant to. So congratulations to the NO voters on earning my 10 mana.

This market is an example of the dogshit of this website. It's retards who treat this shit too seriously trying to scam people who are here to have fun without realizing that by ruining this website with bad faith markets like this you will push away everyone here for fun and be left scamming each other in a dwindling fanbase to compete to see who has the highest mana number. Well done guys truly, A great market and a great waste of time for both you to argue it into minutiae and me to even write this comment.

HumbleFarmer avatar
Humble Farmeris predicting NO at 71%

@memestock ur downbad

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 71%

@memestock There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely”

I bought YES there. It already resolved yes.

Please read the description or seek clarification earlier, rather than complaining later. It isn’t fair on the maker who did a reasonably good job conveying their criteria as it adapted over time

Nobody clarifying the criteria is as mad as you are, they’re trying to have fun (and succeeding) and trying to understand or seek clarification to make markets as interesting as possible. Insulting people and market makers is infinitely worse for the website than crying scam when you don’t get your way

memestock avatar
meme stockis predicting YES at 62%

@Gen Please turn your brain on for one comment. Answer honestly and in good faith: Do you think my complaint is about the mana or something else?

I haven't bet on anything on this website in the past month because other dogshit markets like this ruined the website for me (ones I didn't even bet in either). I haven't bothered to try to "earn" mana because it's a waste of time when what can it be used on? To bet on other markets that are supposed to be fun but in the end get ruined by retards just like this one.

I did read the market and the description. It said "Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?" and the description was "Within two weeks of release. Market resolves "No" if there is no manifesto by the end of 2023." The answer to those conditions is YES. The "manifesto" has been covered on stream. It's been updated after the fact to clarify it into minutiae so the market maker can justify resolving NO for whatever reason.

I'm mad because the people "clarifying the criteria" as you put it are the people who ruined this website for me. I do not intend to use this website beyond arguing with people about how the format of this website. I will not bet in any markets until something is changed and it will not be changed so my use of this website is effectively over. The admins unwillingness to do a thing is what will ultimately let this website die in obscurity. When the former owners are wondering why their experiment died in 3 years they can point to markets like these.

MajorLee12 avatar
MajorLee12is predicting NO at 59%
getkan avatar
getkanis predicting YES at 76%

alright, thanks for taking my manifest bucks, fucking scammer
maybe edit a third time so it fits with what happened and you don't have to resolve?
another dipshit market creator for the blocklist

PersonMan0326 avatar
PersonManis predicting NO at 71%

@getkan I wouldn't mind selling my NO positions right now at a loss, just so that you guys don't all think I'm biased when I say, "there are reasonable interpretations for resolving YES or NO."

There are way too many people in these comments losing their minds over something that could easily be interpreted either way.

We have seen Chud cover the manifesto. We have seen Euradite (spelling, whatever), cover the manifesto. Both uploaded full-length responses on their channels.

Destiny hasn't uploaded anything relating to the Manifesto. He briefly listened to a section that Chud covered, and gave 0 engagement with any content during that time, beyond a, "based," or "TRRRRRRUE."

I'm only bringing these up to say your YES position is not as cut-and-dry as you think it should be. Not to say it should resolve NO.

There is still time for Destiny to give YES voters a more solid/inarguable position by actually responding to or engaging with "the breadth of the article."

PersonMan0326 avatar
PersonManis predicting NO at 71%

@PersonMan0326 Also, we have all seen Destiny "cover" drama manifestos multiple times in the past.

We all know and have a pretty decent understanding of what a Destiny response to a drama manifesto looks like.

I think you'd have a hard time comparing this article response, to the Bob7 article response for example, and say that both had a "discussion that responded to the breadth of the article." The Bob7 response was a response. This hasn't been much of anything at all, yet.

LoginAccount avatar
Login Accountis predicting YES at 71%

@PersonMan0326 That's the fault of @Apencer for not specifying earlier on. Had he included the stipulation of "breadth" from the start, much fewer people would've said yes and he knows it. I'd also argue it's still not specific enough. If Destiny reads 25% of the article by covering all main accusations, is that equivalent to covering "the breadth"?

LoginAccount avatar
Login Accountsold Ṁ91 of YES

Just look at johnleoks market versus this one and ask yourself what the difference in chance stems from.

PersonMan0326 avatar
PersonManis predicting NO at 71%

@LoginAccount I don't disagree at all. Ambiguity in the market is almost always down to the uncertainty caused by the market maker, and amplified by the investors who think they know what the market maker meant.

But the point remains that there is ambiguity. I wouldn't come into the comments saying "This clearly should have already resolved you fucking scammer."

I wouldn't say that because there is ambiguity.

LoginAccount avatar
Login Account

@PersonMan0326 You disagree with my main point then. That's fine. I'm going the step beyond you saying it's an ambiguous woupsie and saying it's probably malicious.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 70%

@LoginAccount The ambiguity is in the word "cover". It begs clarification (which we were granted) as the word in this context means to analyse a series of events whereas many saw it as "if he mentions it once, he's covered it". It's hard to imagine that's malicious, given the depth of clarification he offered. I always saw this market as "if it's not obviously yes, it's obviously no" after that clarification, but I can see (after some comments here of alternative readings) how you could still believe that a little attention is sufficient. I see this is primarily because of people saying that the article can be summarised easily, and because it is so bad, you don't need to address it fully - which is also subjective.

The suspense is crazy cause he went away, we are forced to wait to see if Destiny covers it properly once he returns, as if he does, there won't even be an issue. I don't even know if it's possible for him to comprehensively address the article without reading it (or listening to the entire thing) on stream, purely because it's so drawn out and discursive that if you address the framing of any events it'll always result in accusations of cherry picking - this came up when he spoke to Whick, who essentially said, "well you could just be pointing out those factual inaccuracies because everything else is true and you want to discredit it" [paraphrased].

It sucks because weeks ago we were discussing in these comments our own interpretations and expectations, and people (like John and myself) outlined that the main reason for our bets were because of the length of the article, and the expectation that it would be incohesive, extremely personal, and difficult/painful to rebut. Those discussions lead to the clarification in the description which made this market MUCH more active as everyone seemed to "agree" on a definition. Since then, that has obviously changed, but I hope nobody sees it as malicious as it really isn't.

// Sorry for the long comment // my main point is that even though we're campaigning to yoink from each other, most of us want everyone to have fun too. Even when I thought we had won (when Destiny said on release day he wouldn't review it) my first comment here was to contact me for free mana if you were new to the site and this resolves NO.

HumbleFarmer avatar
Humble Farmeris predicting NO at 71%

@getkan ur downbad

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 77%
Geozach avatar
Zachis predicting YES at 79%

Can we get a statement summarizing the current state.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 78%

Bros where the HECK is the content at?? The whole reason I bet NO here is to hedge against getting the content I wanted. I'm super disappointed. Look at Chuds content vs Destiny's - We could have had it all guys.. We could have had a reaction response and engagement, but here we are.. So sad. I hope when he gets home, he has a pleasant surprise prepared for us all.

A real response to these claims would surely generate some very interesting conversations & bring some old characters back

Malas avatar
Malasis predicting YES at 78%

@Gen He’s doing Change my Mind. I’m sure there will be a minifesto in response when he gets back

MoraOgunro avatar
Mora Ogunrobought Ṁ100 of YES

This literally happened 😭 where is my money

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleyis predicting YES at 78%

The real joke's on @Apencer who didn't realize when he made this market that he was signing himself up for a weekend of watching 5 hours of VODs (minimum) to determine just how "covered" the manifesto was.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleyis predicting YES at 78%

@SirSalty We may end up needing an admin resolve here. Is your weekend booked?

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 78%

@MichaelWheatley Why would we need an admin resolve? YES people are down so bad they actually will do anything to force a premature resolution. OP is still active & will resolve this, they haven't engaged with any comments even when they modified the description.

Let the dude come to a decision, at the appropriate time (2 weeks after release)

HumbleFarmer avatar
Humble Farmeris predicting NO at 78%
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleyis predicting YES at 78%

@Gen OP hasn't used the site in a month The joke is that in two weeks time a Manifold admin is going to have to wade neck-deep in streamer drama to resolve this.

Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ0 of YES

@MichaelWheatley The OP last updated this thread on March13. They are active on Manifold, and aware of this market.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleyis predicting YES at 70%

@Gen Hadn't noticed that. I just looked at the bet and comment history.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksbought Ṁ100 of NO

Reminder that Destiny going on another person's stream to talk shit about Mr. Girl or Lav while he is offline/not streaming doesn't count as covering or reviewing the manifesto on stream. The market description is pretty clear on that, Destiny has to do it on his own stream. Offline or off stream activities have nothing to do with this market.

I thought this was obvious but then you see people bringing up his brief appearance on Whick's stream and counting that as reviewing the manifesto.

Malas avatar
Malasis predicting YES at 78%

@johnleoks You aren't the Market owner. How are you making rules for the market? To be pedantic, it says "on stream." It does not clarify that he needs to do the analysis on his stream.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 78%

@Malas If you are desperate to include every crumb of manifesto related content on other people's streams, it says something about the strength of the YES position. You should be confident that he's going to review it! It's free content !!! Of course he will!! He's going to actually respond to it, not just listen to a random 20% of it (excluding intro, conclusions) with no engagement!! Come on guys believe!

HeatingTesseract avatar
Tesseractis predicting YES at 75%

>if he engages with the larger revelations and analysis the market will resolve YES.

Pack it up, should be resolved YES by now.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 78%

@HeatingTesseract When did he do that? Lmao

Malas avatar
Malasis predicting YES at 78%

@Gen You are acting like he didn't get the overall understanding of the article. Anyone listening would understand that the article was a huge ramble and rant about Destiny's story. Do you really expect an art judge to judge a 4-year-old's drawing with extreme analysis? Also, how are you supposed to counter misinfo?

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 78%

He didn't lol, he read it off stream, said he didn't want to talk about it yet and then he let chuds stream (which was already 10% in) talk through about 1/5th of the article.

Malas avatar
Malasis predicting YES at 78%

@Gen You're acting as if this was an actual coherent Manifesto. It should be clear to anyone who is in DGG that this lacked much substance. If you were listening to him listen to Chud, you would understand that the main point is Destiny is abusive to his orbiters with some of the weakest/misconstrued evidence. It is clear and evident that there isn't much for him to comment on to cover his manifesto. It is an obvious yes:

  • "...an engagement which involves skimming through the entire article, or skipping sections he finds irrelevant or uninteresting will still count towards YES." +

  • "He does not need to respond to every point in the article, nor does he have to finish it, but if he engages with the larger revelations and analysis the market will resolve YES" +

  • "Extensive discussion of the article will only count towards YES if that discussion encompasses a breadth of the article's content." + (This point will probably continue through the next week as he bought a laptop to stream on during his traveling)

You guys are idiots if you couldn't see the writing on the wall for 7+ fucking hours. You are too deep in and just don't want to lose your Ṁ. Be a man and take the L

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 78%

@Malas Copy pasting my response to the "omg look he spent 7 hours sitting there in autopilot droning through Chud's stream" argument.

Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the time argument is the weakest imo. If Chud spent 10 hours to go over 10% of the article and Destiny reacts to all 10 hours, would this meet the criteria of resolving YES? I mean it's 10 hours right? I think we all know the answer to that.
Clearly, time spent doesn't matter. What matters is how much of the article's content he covered.

Malas avatar
Malasis predicting YES at 78%

You are so stupid. Why does someone read a whole document, when it's evident and clear what the document is trying to do? 10% of the article is enough to see the main idea in his writing. MrGirl clearly set out his thesis prior to doing his research - which is an incoherent way to write an argument. In addition, his writing is poorly organized as it fails to give decent context to the situation. To be completely pedantic, Merriam-Webster defines analyzing as identifying and examining the basic elements or parts of (something) especially for discovering interrelationships. Bruh did he not call MrGirl's motives on what he was doing with the article, why it was ineffective, and lack of clear argument? Destiny clearly Analyzes this and gets to the main point. No way you want to sit there and listen to him go through all Tiny's Drama and sniff for every little abusive thing Tiny has done. Anyone that has followed Destiny in the past year or so would agree that this article is hard r-word.

We got the fucking point there is no reason to proceed. The main idea can be encompassed in a listening of 10% of the article. You can't be this dense.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 77%

@Malas Keep up the insults. Definitely making the YES side look good.

Malas avatar
Malasis predicting YES at 77%

@johnleoks as long as you keep making me money with your markets. You're good. I'm sorry if calling you to cope stupid made you feel bad. If arguing makes you feel better about your bad decision, keep it up. I would be doing the same if I put as much Ṁ as you. I wish you luck.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 78%

@Malas 10% might have been enough if it was the intro & conclusion, but he skipped both. It was a random 20% missing the start. There was no engagement on any point, and he didn't listen to what are arguably the two most compelling cases. He even said, multiple times, he didn't want to respond yet.

No need to argue anyway, Destiny is going to engage right? He's going to put together a concise response for a youtube video, and there won't be any issues. I just hope this market doesn't resolve so that in >2weeks from release when Destiny does his real review/response/discussions etc. everyone can see the stark difference between his normal thorough engagement and what we saw the other day.

destiny avatar
GAZE WITHIN

As someone who has had no stake in this market for over two weeks, it should clearly resolve yes. Destiny covered the Mr. Girl manifesto on stream.

NdymBzyd avatar
Ndym Bzydis predicting NO at 77%

@destiny "Clearly" is working graveyard shift here lol. There's good arguments for both sides, considering the corrections/amendments in OP's market. No one is walking away happy at this point lmao

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 78%

@NdymBzyd People will walk away happy if destiny actually covers it properly. The only reason it has room to be disputed is because YESSERs are coping and pretending the description doesn’t exist. There’s another identical market but the only condition was “if he ignores it, resolves NO” -> This was not that market.

This market is more “if it’s not obviously yes, it’s obviously no”, or at least that’s how everyone agreed to interpret it weeks ago. OP did a fine job clarifying and they’ll do a fine job resolving too.

Shah avatar
Shahis predicting YES at 73%

UPDATE ON NEW COVERAGE:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6PVvL2jnE4

Destiny comes in 1:40:00 into call and gives a general summary of max's mentality and the article. Counts as further coverage over breadth of article

Shah avatar
Shahis predicting YES at 73%

Destiny explains how Max fails to build a foundation of his worldview within the doc. Citing the DDoS kid as an example, and explains how Destiny himself would try to build some basic arguments out first before building up to the main claim.

"He needed an editor [...] needed to figure out wtf he wanted to argue [...] once he identified that he needed to hone in on 2-4 stories of furthering that abuse"

1:48:00 Destiny explains how he could have used the DDoS kid, BlueTea, and Mia Rose in an essay format to build out the argument for Abuse. Literally building up a better essay than what Max wrote.

Shah avatar
Shahis predicting YES at 74%

1:50:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6PVvL2jnE4

Destiny answers whick's question on what is his biggest regret based off the things in the article.

"There's probably better ways of integrating people within my streaming ecosystem. I'm not really sure how."

Shah avatar
Shahis predicting YES at 74%

1:53:00 "Out of everyone max has talked with [...] there was not a single instance of sexual misconduct except for Mia Rose [...] no streamer would ever get their life vetted like I have and come out clean "

Shah avatar
Shahbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

1:58:00 "There were so many details in that article that were incorrect [...] There were a lot of little mistakes that show that he needed an editor [...] he should have reached out to other parties for comment [...] having factual inaccuracies like that make your article look like it was written in a fever dream"

"The reason why he worked so hard on the transcriptions is because Max really needs you (the audience) to strip the context from everything" = he covered his opinion on the transcriptions part of the paper

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 77%

@Shah Yeah, Destiny continues to attack the writing, and MrGirl, but not actually discuss/engage with ANY of the content. Literally none.

Hello Mrgirl your article is bad -> ignores the content

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 77%

@Gen Also, from what I can tell, Destiny isn't live during this. He just dropped in.

If anything, this further supports NO resolution lmao. Just wait and hope that he actually does a proper address on stream for a youtube video, so that you don't have to stretch every molecule of mention Destiny gives the article (even off stream)

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 74%

Out of all the arguments from the YES buyers, the time argument is the weakest imo. If Chud spent 10 hours to go over 10% of the article and Destiny reacts to all 10 hours, would this meet the criteria of resolving YES? I mean it's 10 hours right? I think we all know the answer to that.
Clearly, time spent doesn't matter. What matters is how much of the article's content he covered. There's a whole 75% left he hasn't reviewed and he can simply spend 30 minutes skimming over it himself while addressing the main points. He doesn't have to watch Chud's streams to do that.
If people are so confident in a YES resolve, if it's so obvious that the market should resolve YES, then there's no reason to pressure @Apencer to resolve the market right away. Why the rush? Give Destiny a chance to cover the rest of it.

PunishedFurry avatar
Punished Furrybought Ṁ100 of YES

@johnleoks For the record, Destiny stopped listening to Chud at about half way around the article, not 25%. Go ctrl+f it yourself and check this vod at 5:35:43.

And no, he doesn't have to watch anyone's stream to cover the article, but that was one of the conditions that would satisfy YES in the original post of this market. Destiny clearly gave lots of commentary and aggressively pushed back against any false claims in the article.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 71%

@PunishedFurry It's definitely less than halfway and I'm taking into account the parts Destiny missed whenever he leaves his room into my rough estimate.

I've addressed the same arguments you brought up with other people already. Just let Destiny a chance to cover the rest of it, there's no need to force the market creator to resolve it now.

PunishedFurry avatar
Punished Furrybought Ṁ200 of YES

@johnleoks Why would we need to wait for Destiny to cover the rest when he's already fulfilled the requirements of the market to resolve to YES?

Also, I don't know why you keep harping on how much of the article was left when we both know that it was mostly bloat and transcripts of youtube videos. He has already fulfilled the following requirement:

"He does not need to respond to every point in the article, nor does he have to finish it, but if he engages with the larger revelations and analysis the market will resolve YES"

The newest things we learn in this article are the dm's between Ana and Lav which he already watched and reacted to. Everything else is old and transcripts of streams we're already aware of.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 71%

@PunishedFurry "already fulfilled the requirements". I disagree. We may know the article's content because we already read it ourselves or reacted to the rest of Chud's stream. This doesn't apply to Destiny.

"engages with the larger revelations and analysis the market". I disagree that he's met this especially since there's over half the article he hasn't go over. Also, just because he doesn't have to respond to every point in the article, doesn't mean being silent for 95% of the time meets the actively review criteria. Refer to @lnlytwn's post.

I suspect the reason why people are so eager to push for an immediate resolution instead of waiting for Destiny to cover the rest is because they know deep down, milking Chud's stream by putting him in the background while Destiny goes mute for 95% of the time, doesn't meet the criteria for a YES resolve.

PunishedFurry avatar
Punished Furrybought Ṁ200 of YES

@johnleoks All of the juicy bits of the article are in the first half which talks about the ddos kid, destiny's past, a list of destiny's victims, Mia Rose, DM's between Lav and Ana, and the dm's between Destiny and Lav that were never shown before.

The remaining half really has no larger revelations; it really is just bloat. It's mostly transcripts, old dm's, and for whatever fuckin reason, he posted the entirety of Lav's Patreon post which took up at least 10% of the remaining article left.

Also, you keep ascribing motives to the people arguing for YES, but we could say the same about you who is holding the most NO shares in this market lol. You have the most to gain or lose depending on the outcome of this market so one could speculate that you're trying to widen the original requirements of this market for your own self-interest :3

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 72%

@PunishedFurry Agree to disagree. At the end of the day it's up to the market creator to decide which side has the better arguments. Also:


Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 72%

@PunishedFurry Where’s Destiny’s response to the DDOS kid stuff?

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 77%

@Gen You guys are talking about how far he got into the Kick stream, but you're referencing Mia rose and Ddos kid stuff that is not even happening in that stream, Destiny read it off-stream and once he was live on kick, Chud was already a decent way in and it played as background noise without any engagement. He watched a random small chunk of it, if he's going to engage with it, there will be real engagement. It won't be disputable, you'll know.

We'll see youtube videos, comprehensive response, etc.. If he was going to cover it, it would be super obvious. Just wait and see if that happens, before trying to rush/force that crumb of engagement as "covering the article"

PunishedFurry avatar
Punished Furrybought Ṁ100 of YES

I don't know how this can resolve to anything but YES when Destiny spent 5-6 hours watching chud go over the article, gave his commentary on important parts, and often disputed specific claims made in the article that were false.

Did he go over most of the article? No, but that would've required Destiny to watch over 10 hours of Chud going over the video and that seems like an unreasonable expectation for him.

Link to the vod: https://kick.com/video/390eab53-57e7-43f9-b91a-b14b1375b075

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 77%

@PunishedFurry At the beginning of the stream, Chud is already well into the article - Destiny says "We'll talk about it later, give me like an hour" and then later says that he will think about putting together a proper response. Even he himself acknowledges his lack of interaction with the article.

Sure, he listened to it for hours, but it was

  1. not from the beginning

  2. like a quarter of the total article

  3. totally devoid of engagement

If he engages properly, it will be obvious. He still has time to do it. It definitely does not "have to resolve YES", especially if Destiny doesn't bring it up on stream again during the specified timeframe.

lnlytwn avatar
lnlytwnis predicting NO at 74%

~ The @Apencer Report ~

"If Destiny reacts to someone watching the video or reading the article the market will also resolve "Yes"."

"... REACTS ..."

Lil' bro ain't REACTING to nothin' NAHH. Lil' bro's milking Chud's content like a dairy farmer while doing his best impression of a mute NAHH.

In all reality, I'm always shocked by how some of you absolutely SPERG the fuck out over markets with resolution criteria that are open to interpretation. Who put your fake internet points into a market that obviously would have a contentious outcome? Look in the mirror, dummy. Seriously, run through some of the resolution criteria and try to tell yourself with a straight face that YES/NO are SO OBVIOUS at this current point in time:

Criteria 1: "For this market to resolve "Yes" Destiny must either watch the video released by Mr. Girl or read the article."

Conclusion 1: NO! Destiny has not directly engaged with "The Destiny Report" content released by Max.

Criteria 2: "If Destiny reacts to someone watching the video or reading the article the market will also resolve "Yes"."

Conclusion 2: YES! Destiny may not have directly engaged with Max's released content, but he is reacting to Chud's coverage.

Criteria 3: "Short clips will not count, Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream."

Conclusion 3: NO! Even though I was memeing a bit above, I think calling yesterday's stream an 'active' review of the manifesto is a bit generous.

Criteria 4: "This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the article."

Conclusion 4: NO! He has made an effort to listen to the article, but hasn't gotten through the breadth/majority of it yet.

Criteria 5: "However [...] an engagement which involves skimming through the entire article, or skipping sections he finds irrelevant or uninteresting will still count towards YES. He does not need to respond to every point in the article, nor does he have to finish it, but if he engages with the larger revelations and analysis the market will resolve YES."

Conclusion 5: N/A! It appears through this qualifier that coverage of a 'breadth'/majority of the article doesn't really matter, so long as he engages with the "larger revelations and analysis" of the article. Yet again, listening silently to someone else's coverage and even leaving the room at times does not scream 'ENGAGED' to me, but to each their own.

Criteria 6: "Extensive discussion of the article will only count towards YES if that discussion encompasses a breadth of the article's content."

Conclusion 6: ??? This is the cherry on top of the confusion-sundae. This statement directly follows Criteria 5, so now we have no fucking clue how important 'breadth' of coverage is, regardless of how engaged he is during that coverage.

In conclusion, Mr. Girl is to blame for this shit-show of a market because he wrote an absolute SNOOZE-FEST of an article. As a result, Destiny can't make up his mind as to whether or not serious and active coverage is even worth it for the content. PEPE wins.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksbought Ṁ100 of NO

@lnlytwn This took more effort than Destiny "reacting" to Chud's stream yesterday.

HumbleFarmer avatar
Humble Farmerbought Ṁ500 of NO
MajorLee12 avatar
MajorLee12is predicting NO at 78%

https://manifold.markets/MajorLee12/will-the-will-destiny-cover-the-mr

OMG HOW WILL THE MARKET RESOLVE, ARE YOU SURE ABOUT UR POSITION??

ARE YOU SAD THAT YOU MISSED OUT ON THE CHANCE TO WIN BIG :(((( ???

WELL DONT WORRY ABOUT THAT CAUSE I MADE A WHOEL NEW MARKET OVER HOW THIS MARKET WILL RESOLVE!!!!

CUM BET MEOW :3333

SkullCandy avatar
Skull Candybought Ṁ10 of YES

"If Destiny reacts to someone watching the video or reading the article the market will also resolve "Yes" "

RESOLVE YES

NdymBzyd avatar
Ndym Bzydis predicting NO at 74%

@SkullCandy I like how you omitted the part where it said "Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream." which is the entire point of the discussion in the comments.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 74%

@SkullCandy If you ignore the rest of the description and only hone in on this one sentence, then sure this would be a Yes resolve. If all it takes for this to resolve Yes is Destiny simply reacting to someone watching the video, no one would have betted No. Which is why the market creator specified more conditions in the edits. In fact, the very next line after is "Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream".

Malas avatar
Malasbought Ṁ12 of YES

@johnleoks "Destiny makes an effort to [...] listen... an engagement which involves skimming through the entire article, or skipping sections he finds irrelevant or uninteresting will still count towards YES"

Malas avatar
Malasis predicting YES at 77%

@johnleoks Also, could you stop arguing and resolve your markets? I need my money

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 79%

@Malas The thing is, he didn't even skim through the article because he didn't read it. He just put Chud's stream on the background and didn't engage or give commentary 95% of the time. He was on auto pilot, even leaving the room multiple times while Chud's stream was still playing. Not to mention, he didn't even finish watching Chud's stream, who only went over 25% of the article by the time Destiny ended stream.

Malas avatar
Malasis predicting YES at 79%

@johnleoks But it was pretty clear that the manifesto was very irrelevant. He pointed out numerous incidents in which MrGirl had facts blatantly wrong and messaged Chud evidence to show this. There was not much to engage in as it was just a rant about MrGirl's skewed view of Destiny's supposed abuse. Tiny spent 7 hours watching Chud and provided context to his accusations. That should be enough. Stop coping

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting NO at 78%

@Malas The manifesto's relevancy isn't relevant (lol) to this market, the market creator never mentioned it. You can say Destiny "pointed out numerous incidents", that's your opinion.
What is a fact is that Destiny didn't say anything 95% of the time, 7 hours of mostly silence is 7 hours of mostly silence. The length doesn't matter, especially when he only reacted to 25% of article.
Reminder, actively reviewing the manifesto is but 1 of the criteria, the review must also encompasses a breadth of the article's content, which he obviously didn't since there's a whole 75% left.
You guys pushing so hard for the market to be resolved right now when it states that there is a 2 week window says a lot. If you guys are so confident with a Yes resolve, waiting to see if Destiny reviews the rest of the article shouldn't be a problem. Why the hurry? Hmm.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleyis predicting YES at 79%

The manifesto's extremely long-winded, and covers a lot of material that's rehashed or irrelevant. I don't know why you would expect a running commentary. He spends 20m listening to a story everyone knows already and then says "yup" because he doesn't dispute the facts. When he thinks something is a lie or misrepresentation and the reader doesn't point that out himself, he says so.

Malas avatar
Malasis predicting YES at 72%

Not gonna lie, I am interested to see if he covers a bit more of the manifesto later this week. You're clearly too invested. Im gonna wait till later this week.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 77%

Compiling a list of Destiny’s most fleshed out and in depth discussions/responses to each section I’ve finished analysing.

Response to Ana: “…”

Response to Sam: “Based”, “f**k around and find out”

Response to Darius: laughs, “Darius is usually pretty cool”

Response to Merrick: “his writing is really bad”, “Nope” (in response to Chud saying, “is he wrong?”)

He did say during it that he is waiting before he gives a proper response, so it’s coming? I haven’t finished the VOD but I’m sure there’s some great engagement I’m yet to see (Clueless)

jojomonsta7777 avatar
jojomonsta7777bought Ṁ373 of NO

Yes voters learn to read challenge impossible OMEGALUL

PunishedFurry avatar
Punished Furrybought Ṁ200 of YES

With the amount of volume in this market, this is going to be a hella contentious market especially with people arguing in the comments lul

SlapsMcGee avatar
SlapsMcgeeis predicting YES at 83%

This is such shady bullshit. Destiny watching chud for several hours today clearly meets the original requirements set out. Grow a spine and resolve yes.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 83%

@SlapsMcGee Genuinely asking, do you think destiny is done with it? Yes gang are really pushin for early resolve as though he won’t review it anymore.

SlapsMcGee avatar
SlapsMcgeeis predicting YES at 83%

@Gen If Destiny streams tomorrow I think there’s a good chance he watches Chud cover the final portion, yes. But it’s not required for this market to resolve yes… the original terms were not will he cover it twice. The only caveat was that reacting to short clips doesn’t count. Hours of watching Chud surely doesn’t count as a “short clip”

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 84%

@SlapsMcGee But with no real engagement and only listening to a fraction, I don’t see it as clear as you - this is what we discussed weeks ago as it became less likely he would read (or listen to) the whole thing. I don’t think most people would say he has “covered it” yet, it was background noise and nowhere near completed

If the whole thing gets played it’s obviously yes, 70% is probably yes, 50% maybe? It gets fuzzier the less he sees. He’s not even at 50%

If he meaningfully engaged with the ideas/allegations it would overrule necessity for covering the whole thing, but he’s kinda lacking on that

Honestly at this point I just hope he listens to the rest so it’s super obviously YES. Otherwise it’s going to be a fairly divided decision regardless. Gotta let the maker have the final say tho, there’s still 13 days or whatever for Destiny to engage more and make the decision more obvious

LainanQ avatar
Lainan Q.is predicting YES at 77%

@SlapsMcGee I think OP is AFK. If I'm reading his profile correctly, he hasn't posted anything in weeks.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 84%

Tough call? He kind of tried to make it look like he was reacting, without actually saying anything or responding to a few pretty minor points. Then just leaves. Lol

Definitely listened to some of it, not sure there was really any sufficient engagement from what I’ve seen so far. I’m kind of surprised he chose this approach but I guess it still means free viewers and he can’t get called out for ignoring it. I’d be interested in seeing examples of engagement - either responding to direct claims written in the article or discussing the ideas, NOT just saying that the article sucks or attacking max (which is mostly what I saw)

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting NO at 84%

@Gen To be clear tho there is literally no reason to discuss resolution until the 2 weeks pass. Looks like he’ll go listen to the rest and YES will be clear, but it has to be within 2 weeks of the release