Will there be at least 3 Destiny fans in the top-5 leaderboard of the Destiny.gg group by 2023?
31
20
1.2K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

In the same vein as /Yev/a-destiny-fan-is-one-of-top-5-trade, this market resolves YES if the top 5 users in the destiny.gg group leaderboard for top traders as of January 1, 2023, (EDIT: this does not include @acc) include at least 3 users who either joined Manifold Markets to trade in Destiny.gg-related markets or have placed a majority of their bets in the Destiny.gg group. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

Currently, there are two Destiny fans in the top five leaderboard (@novodrajj and @GravyGnome). I will not trade in this market.

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Myself, @Preen, and @Botlab are not Destiny Fans per the description, so this resolves no. While Preen has been involved with Destiny markets, they initially joined to bet on SBF and Trump markets, and many of their bets are on non-Destiny markets.

predicted YES

@a Huh. I had expected Preen to count, not having read the exact criteria in close detail. But admittedly, I wasn't trading this market closely, so maybe it would not have made a difference.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Even though there's currently 2 destiny fans in the top 5 two destiny fans still have to pass Preen.

It's a close competition between @dgg4life (a Destiny fan) and @Yev (not a Destiny fan) for the fifth spot!

@a Are you excluding Acc?

@Yev Ugh, is Acc being excluded from group leaderboards but not overall leaderboards? I think that it probably makes sense to resolve it to whoever the link in the description says the top 5 are, especially since a lot of users trading in this market are not necessarily familiar with @acc. But you're right - Acc is #2 according to the API... I'm open to arguments from either side about whether Acc should count as part of the top 5 in the resolution of this.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@a I think it's fine either way, as long as it's known in advance. But I don't want this to become a market on whether mqp decides to unhide acc by EOY.

@Yev I guess I'll make the decision that acc should be excluded, then

I promised not to trade in this market, but it seems overpriced - after a month, there are still only two Destiny fans in the top 5, and there's only a month to go. Only 1 Destiny fan has managed to make more profit than Michael Wheatley's bot on Destiny markets.

predicted NO

Its possible. The larger manifold community is kind of annoyed by us, so I could see dgg being a private group separated from the main site.

Will there be at least 3 Destiny fans in the top-5 leaderboard of the Destiny.gg group by 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition