Buttocks Cocktoasten's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.73
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Buttocks Cocktoasten bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?YESṀ9,514
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?YESṀ944
60%
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?YESṀ6,900
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?YESṀ1,069
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?YESṀ1,000
70%
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?YESṀ2,400
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?YESṀ420
80%
90%
95%
97%