Resolves yes if an authentic video is posted in the comments of this market of him doing so before market close at noon pacific time on January 6th, 2024.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,774 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,128 | |
| 3 | Ṁ537 | |
| 4 | Ṁ535 | |
| 5 | Ṁ419 |
This article was surprisingly good
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/09/arts/george-santos-online-celebrity-fades.html?unlocked_article_code=1.NE0.Y_2K.vdvjQsVEEpXd
@lag If you reject something and someone comes back with it slightly reworded to try and fine-tune a match to your criteria, do you say "ok, you got me!" and approve? Or do you say "no, this is the same request, I'm not going to let you keep rolling the dice, I told you you could pay more, stop wasting my time". I think there's a reasonable chance of the latter.
@chrisjbillington Eh the first request I made was pretty risk-taking with the business policy, I can make it way more subtle
@oh lol and will look even more sus. Good luck, but people don't like feeling like they're being manipulated, your request might just end up in the bin and Manifold's reputation as "the place weird people trying to manipulate me to do things come from" further cemented.
I kind of think actions like this are burning the commons and Manifold explicitly has a rule against volating other sites' terms and conditions to try and win markets, for this reason. Might not be against anyone's rules to be persistent or sneaky about this request, but it's the same kind of thing. I'd give up, whether I were a NO bettor or not. Keep the shenanigans within the community where everyone signed up for them more or less.
@chrisjbillington Fair. Should’ve added a /s to the “make a new account” comment, that was in jest. There’s no way that he has the memory to recall the account name (it was generic).
Re: Manifold looking bad, nah, Santos gets many, many requests and there’s no way he’s paying that much attention. My guess is that he saw “Manifold is a site” without going further, then hit some generic “decline since this is commercial” button. The point of the “Business” option is for companies to formally and legally license the video for commercial use, which is far from our intention here. Completely rewriting the message to omit mention of Manifold in order to better show that it’s for personal and not commercial use both follows the letter and spirit of the site’s TOS (I’m a rule follower so I actually read them fully before submitting the request). I think your concern about the danger spreading shenanigans is valid, but not applicable here.
@chrisjbillington I wrote this whole spiel not because I’m invested in the cause (I made the campaign for commitment to the bit and did not expect it to get funded), but because I get defensive when my actions are seen as even the least bit suspicious or sketchy. I’m making my best attempt to make this resolve YES out of sense of moral obligation to the users who entrusted me with their real-life money.
@oh Reviews indicate that he tends to deliver just in time, meaning a week after the request is placed. He has time before the request expires, meaning this market’s price should be the same as it was a few days ago.
