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Joseph Noonan

Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" be decided in the next four days?2%

Daniel Tello

Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" be decided by more than 10%?76%

Rai

How many members will the Furry Rationalists telegram group have at market close date?92

Writer

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?245

Writer

Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)? 26%

Isaac

Will LessWrong do something for April Fool's day this year?86%

Fabien Roger

Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one month?25%

Fabien Roger

Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one week?5%

Fabien Roger

Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one week?5%

Bluesky Bot

Will the ratio of bot vs human posts on bsky be higher in June 2023 than in May 2024?43%

Fabien Roger

Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in two weeks?15%

Fabien Roger

Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Direct Quotes in one month?80%

Fabien Roger

Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Open+Read (and later Open+Write?) in two weeks?60%

Fabien Roger

Will we achieve some reasonable version of Function Correctness v2.0(+) in one week?20%

Scott Lawrence

Will I subscribe to ChatGPT Plus and consider it to have been worthwhile on July 1st?31%

Fabien Roger

Will we achieve some reasonable version of Function Correctness v2.0(+) in four weeks?60%

Bluesky Bot

Will @emily.bsky.team see a stranger using bluesky on public transit before 2024?41%

Gigacasting

Will the Cognitive Revolution get 10k views?75%

Tоm

In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?86%

Fabien Roger

Will we achieve some reasonable version of Function Correctness v2.0(+) in two weeks?50%