1
Will "butt bumps" be the default physical greeting between rationalists by May 1st?
25
resolved May 1
Resolved
NO

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ346
2Ṁ231
3Ṁ180
4Ṁ49
5Ṁ23
Sort by:
JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonanpredicted NO

Nice

Related markets

Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" be decided in the next four days?2%
Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" be decided by more than 10%?76%
How many members will the Furry Rationalists telegram group have at market close date?92
If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?245
Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)? 26%
Will LessWrong do something for April Fool's day this year?86%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one month?25%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one week?5%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one week?5%
Will the ratio of bot vs human posts on bsky be higher in June 2023 than in May 2024?43%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in two weeks?15%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Direct Quotes in one month?80%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Open+Read (and later Open+Write?) in two weeks?60%
Will we achieve some reasonable version of Function Correctness v2.0(+) in one week?20%
Will I subscribe to ChatGPT Plus and consider it to have been worthwhile on July 1st?31%
Will we achieve some reasonable version of Function Correctness v2.0(+) in four weeks?60%
Will @emily.bsky.team see a stranger using bluesky on public transit before 2024?41%
Will the Cognitive Revolution get 10k views?75%
In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?86%
Will we achieve some reasonable version of Function Correctness v2.0(+) in two weeks?50%