Will @realDonaldTrump write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

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predicted YES

I can't believe he didn't tweet it. No wonder he was ruled ineligible to run for president in Colorado and Maine. If he does get elected, I hope he gets impeached again for refusing to tweet rationalussy!

What if he is writing "oogie boogussy rationalussy" as I question the meaning of the word changed?

predicted YES

@Mirek If it has the word "rationalussy" in it, it counts.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Buying YES to hedge against... whatever nightmarish background process and/or aftereffects would inevitably be adjacent to this event in the structure-of-time.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@NicholasKross What if Trump joins the rationalist community, and, after learning the art of rationality, becomes a new man, dropping his old divisive and egotistical ways and instead using his newfound rationality to work for the betterment of humanity? Then, as a newly-made rationalist, he runs on a platform of evidence-based policy while trying to teach his supporters to critically think about what is true and overcome their biases, both intellectual and social. This leads to a new political era where people are better able to reason about politics and no longer let their prejudices taint their judgement. During the course of his campaign, Trump mentions the rationalussy meme in a tweet.

This background process would lead to Trump tweeting the word "rationalussy" but would in fact be good fot the world, so clearly you should be hedging against it not happening.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan Valid and good! But then the hedge becomes expensive because I'd be buying "NO" shares here lol.

i'm on that "explosive insurance-like payouts" grindset (see Safe Havens by Spitznagel)

predicted NO
predicted NO

6% over ten months plus loans. Not bad ROI

Here is a slightly more realistic scenario involving political figures and tweets about "rationalussy":

predicted NO

Nobody's pushing this to zero because they don't trust the judge I assume?

predicted NO

@StrayClimb Trump's twitter password has been guessed before.

predicted NO
predicted YES

@StrayClimb My market below gives a 10% chance of this being resolved incorrectly.

bought Ṁ459 of YES

Why do people think this isn't going to happen? I spent all of my M500 gift that I got from Manifold for being a valuable new predictor on creating this market and buying yes shares.

predicted YES

This is what the probability should be:

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@ButtocksCocktoasten I think this isn’t going to happen because the word in question is super obscure. I can’t find a definition of it online, or any evidence of its use outside of this website. Ergo, I have a hard time believing that the former president will use this word.

predicted YES

@nottelling2ccc It may be obscure now, but once every Twitter user simultaneously tweets it, it will become well-known.

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