Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
122
815
1.2k
2026
34%
chance

Related market: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat

Nov 14, 8:20am: Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? → Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

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This market needs clarification regarding the AI used. If an AI is trained on a dataset which includes IMO 2024 / 2025 solutions, it's pretty likely it would get a score high enough to be gold.

2 traders bought Ṁ110 YES
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@GCS It just blew through the geometry questions at the bronze level and surpasses the silver-level : "In a paper published today in Nature, we introduce AlphaGeometry, an AI system that solves complex geometry problems at a level approaching a human Olympiad gold-medalist - a breakthrough in AI performance. In a benchmarking test of 30 Olympiad geometry problems, AlphaGeometry solved 25 within the standard Olympiad time limit. For comparison, the previous state-of-the-art system solved 10 of these geometry problems, and the average human gold medalist solved 25.9 problems."

bought Ṁ20 of YES

This just seems not that hard. Feels like the main reason why it wouldn't get yes is if nobody tries / IMO doesn't let it compete.

Is there any real money markets on this?

If AI skips bronze and silver and goes on to win gold immediately, how does this resolve?

@NoUsernameSelected I'll wait until 2025 to see if some other AI subsequently wins a bronze or silver, but if not, I think that it should resolve NO.

Is this by 2025 or by the end of 2025? The original bet is by the end of 2025

@ValeryCherepanov This is intended to match the timespan of the original bet and include the 2025 IMO. The title was copied from Austin's market on the original bet, but I will edit it to clarify.

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