Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?
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Plus
63
Ṁ32k
2026
80%
chance

Rules:

-The AI has only as much time as a human competitor, but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.

-The AI must be evaluated under conditions substantially equivalent to human contestants, e.g. the same time limits and submission judging rules. The AI cannot query the Internet.

-The AI must not have access to the problems before being evaluated on them, e.g. the problems cannot be included in the training set. It should also be reasonably verifiable, e.g. it should not use any data which was uploaded after the latest competition.

-The contest must be most current IOI contest at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).

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reposted

Reposting in the light of new Deepmind work on IMO

@klein199 Yes, I saw bronze medal market for IMO but none for IOI, hence this market.

My point is that I don't see this one much above 40% or so given how the IMO markets are turning out (as someone with experience in olympiad problems, honestly that's still overvalued but I'm going with the current public here)

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