🏅 Top traders

@mods BTE market, resolves NO, Biden & trump are now debating

Underspecified market here, I think most people are expecting this to resolve "no" today after the debate happens today. That seems fair to everyone?

That is how I interpreted it. If they get Biden's drug cocktail wrong today, he may pull out...

I'm curious how serious people are about the whole drug cocktail thing:

Yeah this seems very straightforward to me? In the case where they don’t debate, the market is fuzzily defined, and it might be hard to decide whether Biden himself refused to debate. But in the case where they debate, by definition Biden did not refuse to debate.

How does this resolve is Trump isn't nominated?

@DavidMathers It will resolve to NO then.

What happens if it's unclear who's refusing to debate who? Say they disagree on some logistical problem (moderator, time, venue, etc) so don't end up debating - would this resolve yes? Would that still be true even if it seems possible one of them is just using the logistical issue as an excuse?

@Weepinbell If Trump wants to debate in any shape or form but Biden refuses, then I think it is fair to resolve this to YES.

@Bart5f6d So let's say Biden is amenable to a historically typical debate schedule (similar moderators, venues, timing, format), but Trump refuses that and says that he'll only debate if the debate in Mar a Lago with Don Jr. as moderator (obviously I'm exaggerating for effect here, but you get the idea). Biden then refuses this arrangement. Would this resolve yes?

When will it happen? On a Sunday when court isn’t in session? Trump can’t avoid sitting in a courtroom every day through literally the last 6 months of the campaign. THINK ABOUT THAT!!!!

the one televised trial he is gonna be literally sitting next to Rudy handing him towels to wipe the hair dye from dripping down his face. All the rest of the people in that room face Fulton County Jail and he can’t help them even if he is president. THINK ABOUT HOW ABSOLUTELY BRUTAL THAT IS GOING TO BE!!! You think that guy can be elected president?!?!? He better start thinking about being VP or calling it a day because he is goose is cooked.

Trump might be lucky and be known as the president taken down by the people around him. The little league squad.