Will the first presidential debate "matter"?
110
269
1k
Dec 2
19%
chance

Resolves YES if either candidate gets a 3 point boost between the debate day and two weeks afterwards. Will use RCP's 2-way "Spread" score for resolution purposes. Resolves N/A if no debate takes place. I have set the resolution date far away only as a safeguard against rescheduling.

Link to resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

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opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 19% order

RFK will shock the nation!

bought Ṁ10 NO

Nice market. Rarely do debates make an impact of something this large, except maybe by coincidence. However if RFK shows up, perhaps something might happen. Still very unlikely.

Maybe another market at 1% would be better.

@gpt_news_headlines ah yes but what if somebody calls someone else a stinky poo poo head? Have you considered that?

@gpt_news_headlines Shows up? Is he invited?

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