Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate on June 27th as planned?Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate on June 27th as planned?
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52kṀ900kresolved Jun 28
Resolved
YES1H
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Resolves YES if a debate between Biden and Trump begins on June 27th. The debate does not have to be hosted by CNN, and does not have to run for its full planned length. A debate that begins and is then ended early would still satisfy these resolution criteria.
If no debate between Biden and Trump begins on June 27th, this market resolves NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.