Trump/Biden First Debate Bets
179
1.1K
12K
2025
59%
Trump and Biden shake hands
39%
The debate is hosted by CNN
13%
The debate will occur before either party's national convention
41%
Either candidate says the word "ChatGPT"
8%
Either candidate says "Taylor" or "Swift" in reference to the pop star
38%
A mic is (intentionally) muted.
11%
Trump directly addresses Putin or Russia as his audience. (E.g. “If you’re listening…”)
55%
Biden blames Trump for scuttling the immigration deal
49%
Trump mentions a Republican primary opponent by name
93%
Trump asserts that his legal case(s) [any] “are unfair” OR says the phrase “witch-hunt”
41%
Biden says the word “malarkey”
84%
The moderator threatens to mute a mic (or gives a warning of muting)
60%
Trump states or hints that he would not concede if he loses the election
18%
Two independent questions about AI are asked
25%
Debate is rescheduled or cancelled after a date is first set.
92%
Trump highlights a situation or statistic from Biden's presidency that wouldn't have happened under him
45%
Someone talks about the Abraham Accords
52%
Candidate takes a sip of water while answering a question
45%
Candidate shares a web address
24%
Someone talks about Cryptocurrency

Trump has challenged Biden to debate "anytime, anywhere, anyplace."

Options in this market resolve based on what occurs during the first presidential debate between the two. If no such debate occurs, all options in this market resolve N/A.

  • Be clear when a submission is about a candidate saying exact words, and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this.

  • Submit answers that might or might not happen, nothing too likely or unlikely.

  • Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible. I reserve the right to rephrase answers as needed.

  • Please do not submit subjective answers, everyone should agree if an option resolves yes or no regardless of their politics.

  • Please do not submit options that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.

  • Please don't submit significantly more answers than anyone else.

  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for quality control reasons.

  • Submitted options may be edited to make the resolution criteria more objective.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Trump makes a verbal slip up AND Biden makes a joke/remark about age (of either of them)

Chronological order of these events occurring does not matter?

No presidential debate between Trump and Biden occurs in 2024

Why is this N/A?

reposted

Odds of a debate happening are looking up! News from a few minutes ago:

“I am, somewhere. I don’t know when,” Biden said when asked by interviewer Howard Stern whether he planned to debate his predecessor. “I’m happy to debate him.”

It’s the first time Biden has said explicitly he would debate Trump in this election cycle. Previously, he has equivocated, saying it would depend on the former president’s behavior. Some of Biden’s aides have questioned whether Trump would abide by established rules in any potential debate, and before Friday his campaign hadn’t set out any specific debate plan.

Leaving submissions closed here for now so we can still add more when the debate is closer, but if you make your own markets about the debate I can add them to the dashboard!

No presidential debate between Trump and Biden occurs in 2024

@ManifoldPolitics The sentence "If no [presidential debate] occurs, all options in this market resolve N/A" in the description means that this can't resolve to YES under the current rules.

Good point, N/A-ed

There will not be a debate between Trump and Biden.

Biden mentions LGBT

Please further define resolution criteria

@snazzlePop I'm just gonna N/A that since it caused controversy for the SOTU, and I'm going to go through the rest of these now looking for other issues.

Closing submissions for a minute, we're already at 41 options and we don't even know when the debate will be 😅

No presidential debate between Trump and Biden occurs in 2024
bought Ṁ15 No presidential deba... NO

Arbitrage opportunity here (I spent all the Mana I had lol):

https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-a-debate-be-held-betw

Either candidate says "Taylor" or "Swift" in reference to the pop star

Similar market with more traders for arbitrage and volume

How does "Options in this market resolve based on what occurs during the first presidential debate between the two. If no such debate occurs, all options in this market resolve N/A." interact with "No presidential debate between Trump and Biden occurs in 2024"? Is it an exception? Can it ever resolve Yes?

Trump states or hints that he would not concede if he loses the election

During the debate? Seems unlikely. What counts as a "hint", though?

@ManifoldPolitics Should this one be N/A too as being too vague?