June 27th Presidential Debate Prop Bets
Standard
756
Ṁ410k
resolved Jul 8
Resolved
YES
Biden calls Trump a "Felon" or a "Convicted criminal"
Resolved
NO
Trump and Biden shake hands
Resolved
N/A
6-second silence during answer
Resolved
NO
A candidate says the word "ChatGPT"
Resolved
NO
Abraham Lincoln is mentioned
Resolved
YES
Biden blames Trump for scuttling the immigration deal
Resolved
NO
Biden calls Trump "Pal"
Resolved
YES
Biden closes his eyes for 3 or more seconds continuously
Resolved
NO
Biden gets at least 2 people's name wrong.
Resolved
YES
Biden is physically guided off-stage (such as having a hand on his back, locked arms, or otherwise being physically helped to move or maintain balance)
Resolved
NO
Biden jokes about being old
Resolved
YES
Biden makes a verbal slip up, which Trump turns into an issue about his age
Resolved
N/A
Biden mentions LGBT
Resolved
NO
Biden mentions someone in Trump's family, and/or ex-wives, by name
Resolved
NO
Biden pardons Trump on stage
Resolved
NO
Biden references Trump's being on probation
Resolved
NO
Biden says "my predecessor"
Resolved
NO
Biden says the phrase "white supremacy" or “white supremacists”
Resolved
YES
Biden says the word "folks"
Resolved
YES
Biden says the word "inflation"

Options in this market resolve based on what occurs during the first presidential debate between, currently scheduled for June 27th on CNN. If the event is rescheduled, this market will still resolve based on the first presidential debate.

You can add your own submissions to this market, but please follow these guidelines:

  • Be clear when a submission is about a candidate saying exact words, and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this.

  • Submit answers that might or might not happen, nothing too likely or unlikely.

  • Make your submissions as clear and descriptive as possible.

  • Please do not submit subjective answers, everyone should agree if an option resolves yes or no regardless of their politics.

  • Please do not submit options that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.

  • Please don't submit significantly more answers than anyone else.

  • I reserve the right to resolve any answer as N/A for quality control reasons.

  • Submitted options may be edited to make the resolution criteria more objective.

If no presidential debate ever occurs, all options in this market resolve N/A.

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From a "make your beliefs pay rent in anticipated experiences" POV, it's pretty serious that the "Biden is too old" crowd was able to pre-register their prediction that he would be guided off the stage.

Biden is physically guided off-stage (such as having a hand on his back, locked arms, or otherwise being physically helped to move or maintain balance)

@Joshua Jill walked him off the stage at the end holding his hand and back, this can resolve to Yes.

@HWH The fact that neither candidate uttered the words 'crypto' or 'AI' is very discouraging. At least RFK mentioned them in his closing statement..

Biden is physically guided off-stage (such as having a hand on his back, locked arms, or otherwise being physically helped to move or maintain balance)
Biden makes a verbal slip up, which Trump turns into an issue about his age
bought Ṁ50 Biden makes a verbal... YES

@IsarBhattacharjee I don't know what the "I don't think he knows what he was saying, either" comment could be about other than his age.

Good point, I tend to agree

playing devil's advocate - that could be an assumed angle but it's a pretty far stretch to attribute it directly to "Trump turns into an issue about his age" as it was a brief comment, then he went off on his own tangent unrelated to Biden's age whatsoever.

@Panfilo I think there's a broad critique of Biden as having mental issues, particularly around incoherence and confusion, that is closely associated with his age but is not the same thing, so "about" may not apply. shrug

Also agree

bought Ṁ50 Biden makes a verbal... NO

Yeah, given that Trump is also quite old, it may be strategic on his part to specifically not go after Biden as “old”, but to instead focus on the “incoherent”/“unfit” angle in a way that can’t be turned back on himself so easily.

All the Biden mental critiques are centered on it, none are based on him hitting his head or having a birth defect.

I think this is not clearly about his age. Trump could have said something like "he is too old to be up there," but he didn't, and just referring to mental issues isn't clearly referencing age IMO

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Biden is physically guided off-stage (such as having a hand on his back, locked arms, or otherwise being physically helped to move or maintain balance)
bought Ṁ150 Biden is physically ... YES

I think this probably counts but I'd like to see what Polymarket does, they have this question and the one about eyes being closed for three seconds.

ah I resolved this one as it seemed clear, I'll unresolve to wait.

Getting a lot of error messages trying to resolve stuff, going to leave it for now but mods feel free to give it a try.

@SteveSokolowski the "beat Medicare" might be a contender

bought Ṁ5 Answer #6c55d70ff6b2 YES

@ADings This resolves as YES imo. Talking about how the election would be fradulent is a hint he won't accept the results if he loses, since that's hat he did when he lost last time.

I agree. Jumping to fraud (in the absence of any indication of voter fraud actually being a significant risk and in the context of his response to the 2020 election) is a strong hint that he’ll again claim fraud if he’s again not declared the election winner, IMO.

I agree

One-month ago and one-week ago me agree with this

“Just see results” votes don’t count toward the tally right

It says a plurality, so they definitely don't count unless more people say "Show Results" than Trump, and even then, I assume they don't count