Trump & Biden June 27th Debate Prop Bets (Add your own)
287
1.7k
14k
Jun 29
40%
Either candidate mentions something they did earlier in the day.
69%
Trump's microphone gets turned off / censored
34%
Trump or Biden mention George / Alex Soros
36%
Biden gets at least 2 people's name wrong.
8%
RFK Jr is also on stage
1.6%
Biden pardons Trump on stage
57%
trump suggests biden is on drugs/uppers and or makes a reference to a drug test that was or should have been administered before the debate
86%
“Shut up” or “be quiet” is said
25%
Biden mentions someone in Trump's family, and/or ex-wives, by name
90%
Stormy Daniels is mentioned explicitly or hinted at
9%
Trump says he will legalize recreational cannabis (weed/pot)
71%
Sneakers, Bibles or NFTs are mentioned
66%
Someone uses the phrase "open border(s)"
65%
The word "covid" is said
65%
Trump and/or Biden say the word “vaccine(s)”
13%
At least one of {Paul Christiano, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Ilya Sutskever, Yann Lecun, Elon Musk} mentioned
13%
There is a single moderator
71%
Kamala Harris is mentioned
75%
A candidate says the name "Obama" (includes Obamacare)
38%
Biden calls Trump "Pal"

Options in this market resolve based on what occurs during the first presidential debate between, currently scheduled for June 27th on CNN. If the event is rescheduled, this market will still resolve based on the first presidential debate.

You can add your own submissions to this market, but please follow these guidelines:

  • Be clear when a submission is about a candidate saying exact words, and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this.

  • Submit answers that might or might not happen, nothing too likely or unlikely.

  • Make your submissions as clear and descriptive as possible.

  • Please do not submit subjective answers, everyone should agree if an option resolves yes or no regardless of their politics.

  • Please do not submit options that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.

  • Please don't submit significantly more answers than anyone else.

  • I reserve the right to resolve any answer as N/A for quality control reasons.

  • Submitted options may be edited to make the resolution criteria more objective.

If no presidential debate ever occurs, all options in this market resolve N/A.

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why N/A ?

@WalterJr Presumably because of this:
> Please do not submit options that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.

reposted

Moderators announced:

CNN hosts Jake Tapper and Dana Bash will moderate the first 2024 presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump next month, the network announced Wednesday.

Biden and Trump agreed to participate in two separate debates within minutes of each other earlier Wednesday, one on June 27 on CNN and another on Sept. 10 on ABC News.

Chronological order of these events occurring does not matter?

opened a Ṁ60 Someone uses the phr... NO at 79% order

@Quroe if it's up to me it does not matter

Why is this N/A?

reposted

Odds of a debate happening are looking up! News from a few minutes ago:

“I am, somewhere. I don’t know when,” Biden said when asked by interviewer Howard Stern whether he planned to debate his predecessor. “I’m happy to debate him.”

It’s the first time Biden has said explicitly he would debate Trump in this election cycle. Previously, he has equivocated, saying it would depend on the former president’s behavior. Some of Biden’s aides have questioned whether Trump would abide by established rules in any potential debate, and before Friday his campaign hadn’t set out any specific debate plan.

Leaving submissions closed here for now so we can still add more when the debate is closer, but if you make your own markets about the debate I can add them to the dashboard!

@ManifoldPolitics The sentence "If no [presidential debate] occurs, all options in this market resolve N/A" in the description means that this can't resolve to YES under the current rules.

Good point, N/A-ed

There will not be a debate between Trump and Biden.

Please further define resolution criteria

@snazzlePop I'm just gonna N/A that since it caused controversy for the SOTU, and I'm going to go through the rest of these now looking for other issues.

Closing submissions for a minute, we're already at 41 options and we don't even know when the debate will be 😅

bought Ṁ15 Answer #8b7900d3e254 NO

Arbitrage opportunity here (I spent all the Mana I had lol):

https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-a-debate-be-held-betw

Similar market with more traders for arbitrage and volume

How does "Options in this market resolve based on what occurs during the first presidential debate between the two. If no such debate occurs, all options in this market resolve N/A." interact with "No presidential debate between Trump and Biden occurs in 2024"? Is it an exception? Can it ever resolve Yes?

During the debate? Seems unlikely. What counts as a "hint", though?

@ManifoldPolitics Should this one be N/A too as being too vague?