If Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan how will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) respond?
8
600Ṁ383
resolved Sep 4
30%26%
Hold military exercises near the Taiwan strait
29%25%
Fly many military aircraft close to Taiwan
19%16%
Impose sanctions on Pelosi
18%15%
Redeploy additional military resources (missiles, missile defense systems, etc) closer to Taiwan.
5%4%
Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing
13%Other
0.0%
Implement No-Fly Zone in Taiwanese airspace
0.0%
Naval blockade of commercial shipping into and out of Taiwan
0.0%
Intercept and divert her flight
0.0%
Make it rain: https://futurism.com/china-rolling-out-enormous-weather-modification-system?amp

If [this market](https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-duri) resolves YES, how will the PLA respond?

Note that it has been officials of the PLA issuing the warnings to Pentagon officials, not the political leadership so much, as if to emphasize the nature of a potential response will certainly be an escalation of an already tense situation.

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@MartinRandall I counted it mostly because I like the last bit about their actions signifying nothing. I am convinced it was a political show for the upcoming Party Congress.

@MartinRandall I'm feeling good about this prediction, though I suppose it's too vague to count.

@BTE are you going to resolve this? Seems like the immediate response is pretty much done.

@jack Yes, thank you for the reminder.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/china-sanctions-us-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-over-trip-to-taiwan.html > China on Friday imposed sanctions on U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her immediate family in response to what the Foreign Ministry described as an “egregious provocation.” > The statement did not include specific details about the nature of the sanctions.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/nancy-pelosi-visit-taipei-taiwan-trip/index.html > Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said that 21 Chinese warplanes made incursions into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday. In response, the Taiwanese military issued radio warnings and deployed air defense missile systems to monitor the activities, it added. > China frequently sends warplanes into Taiwan's self-declared ADIZ. The highest number of incursions ever recorded was on October 4 last year, when 56 military planes flew into the area on the same day. An ADIZ is unilaterally imposed and distinct from sovereign airspace, which is defined under international law as extending 12 nautical miles from a territory's shoreline.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/nancy-pelosi-visit-taipei-taiwan-trip/index.html > China's military said it was on "high alert" and would conduct exercises around Taiwan in response to Pelosi's trip, saying in statements it was launching a series "targeted military operations to counteract the situation."
They already held some around when Pelosi left for the Asia trip: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/30/china-announces-military-exercise-opposite-taiwan-00048810. They'll probably do more after Pelosi visits.
Also https://manifold.markets/jack/will-chinese-military-aircraft-ente Will Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's territorial airspace in August?
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-china-declare-a-nofly-zone-ove Will China declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan in August?
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-china-attempt-to-intercept-nan Will China attempt to intercept Nancy Pelosi's plane?
"Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in August?"
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-number-of-chinese-military
(or troops, obviously)

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