If Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan how will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) respond?
Oct 2
M$378 bet
jack
Jack answered
Hold military exercises near the Taiwan strait
27%
jack
Jack answered
Fly many military aircraft close to Taiwan
26%
jack
Jack answered
Impose sanctions on Pelosi
17%
MattP
Matt P answered
Redeploy additional military resources (missiles, missile defense systems, etc) closer to Taiwan.
16%
MartinRandall
Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing
0.5%
Add your answer
jack
Hold military exercises near the Taiwan strait
jack
Jack bought M$1
They already held some around when Pelosi left for the Asia trip: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/30/china-announces-military-exercise-opposite-taiwan-00048810. They'll probably do more after Pelosi visits.
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jack
Jack bought M$30
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/nancy-pelosi-visit-taipei-taiwan-trip/index.html > China's military said it was on "high alert" and would conduct exercises around Taiwan in response to Pelosi's trip, saying in statements it was launching a series "targeted military operations to counteract the situation."
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jack
Fly many military aircraft close to Taiwan
jack
Jack is betting
Fly many m... to Taiwan
"Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in August?"
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jack
Jack is betting
Fly many m... to Taiwan
Also https://manifold.markets/jack/will-chinese-military-aircraft-ente Will Chinese military aircraft enter Taiwan's territorial airspace in August?
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jack
Jack is betting
Hold milit...wan strait
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/nancy-pelosi-visit-taipei-taiwan-trip/index.html > Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said that 21 Chinese warplanes made incursions into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday. In response, the Taiwanese military issued radio warnings and deployed air defense missile systems to monitor the activities, it added. > China frequently sends warplanes into Taiwan's self-declared ADIZ. The highest number of incursions ever recorded was on October 4 last year, when 56 military planes flew into the area on the same day. An ADIZ is unilaterally imposed and distinct from sovereign airspace, which is defined under international law as extending 12 nautical miles from a territory's shoreline.
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jack
Impose sanctions on Pelosi
jack
Jack bought M$10
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/china-sanctions-us-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-over-trip-to-taiwan.html > China on Friday imposed sanctions on U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her immediate family in response to what the Foreign Ministry described as an “egregious provocation.” > The statement did not include specific details about the nature of the sanctions.
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MattP
Redeploy additional military resources (missiles, missile defense systems, etc) closer to Taiwan.
MattP
Matt P is betting
Redeploy a...o Taiwan.
(or troops, obviously)
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MartinRandall
Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing
sketch
Intercept and divert her flight
jack
Jack is betting
Fly many m... to Taiwan
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-china-attempt-to-intercept-nan Will China attempt to intercept Nancy Pelosi's plane?
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BTE
Naval blockade of commercial shipping into and out of Taiwan
BTE
Implement No-Fly Zone in Taiwanese airspace
jack
Jack is betting
Fly many m... to Taiwan
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-china-declare-a-nofly-zone-ove Will China declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan in August?
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