If Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan how will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) respond?

Global Macro•Taiwan•China

Ṁ383

resolved Sep 4

ALL

30%26%

Hold military exercises near the Taiwan strait

29%25%

Fly many military aircraft close to Taiwan

19%16%

Impose sanctions on Pelosi

18%15%

Redeploy additional military resources (missiles, missile defense systems, etc) closer to Taiwan.

5%4%

Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing

0.0%

Implement No-Fly Zone in Taiwanese airspace

0.0%

Naval blockade of commercial shipping into and out of Taiwan

0.0%

Intercept and divert her flight

0.0%

Make it rain: https://futurism.com/china-rolling-out-enormous-weather-modification-system?amp

If [this market](https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-duri) resolves YES, how will the PLA respond?

Note that it has been officials of the PLA issuing the warnings to Pentagon officials, not the political leadership so much, as if to emphasize the nature of a potential response will certainly be an escalation of an already tense situation.

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answered

Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing

@MartinRandall I counted it mostly because I like the last bit about their actions signifying nothing. I am convinced it was a political show for the upcoming Party Congress.

answered

Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing

@MartinRandall I'm feeling good about this prediction, though I suppose it's too vague to count.

@BTE are you going to resolve this? Seems like the immediate response is pretty much done.

@jack Yes, thank you for the reminder.

answered

Impose sanctions on Pelosi

bought Ṁ10

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/china-sanctions-us-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-over-trip-to-taiwan.html > China on Friday imposed sanctions on U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her immediate family in response to what the Foreign Ministry described as an “egregious provocation.” > The statement did not include specific details about the nature of the sanctions.

answered

Fly many military aircraft close to Taiwan

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/nancy-pelosi-visit-taipei-taiwan-trip/index.html > Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said that 21 Chinese warplanes made incursions into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday. In response, the Taiwanese military issued radio warnings and deployed air defense missile systems to monitor the activities, it added. > China frequently sends warplanes into Taiwan's self-declared ADIZ. The highest number of incursions ever recorded was on October 4 last year, when 56 military planes flew into the area on the same day. An ADIZ is unilaterally imposed and distinct from sovereign airspace, which is defined under international law as extending 12 nautical miles from a territory's shoreline.

answered

Hold military exercises near the Taiwan strait

bought Ṁ30

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/nancy-pelosi-visit-taipei-taiwan-trip/index.html > China's military said it was on "high alert" and would conduct exercises around Taiwan in response to Pelosi's trip, saying in statements it was launching a series "targeted military operations to counteract the situation."