Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS? | Manifold

Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?

25

100Ṁ1603

2028

24%

Trump wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan

76%

Trump wins, Xi Will invade Taiwan

0.2%

Harris wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan

0.4%

Harris wins, Xi Will invade Taiwan

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🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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bought Ṁ264 NO

@WieDan "Harris wins" options resolve NO

bought Ṁ100 YES

@puffymist I can't do that unfortunately.

bought Ṁ20 NO

How does this resolve if:

The term of the next POTUS ends before the invasion?
The invasion is carried out by a different leader than Xi?

I should have ritten China instead of Xi I will change te title.
As for president ending term early (so death?) I think an invasion after should not count.

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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan during the leadership of the person in power after Xi Jinping?

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Conditional on the next US President being Democrat, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

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If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?

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