Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan during summer recess?
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2.2kṀ58kresolved Aug 2
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Resolves yes if Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan during the summer recess. resolves know if she does not.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Here are some quick thoughts on how I made so much betting on this market since @Austin asked about it:
My main source of profits was that I thought the market way over-updated when Pelosi left for her Asia trip and her announced schedule didn't include Taiwan - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62367362. This announcement was not a surprise to me - it was already 90% clear to me that Pelosi's plan, if she was going to visit, would be to avoid making an official statement until she actually landed in Taiwan. So on this news I would have updated down from 75% to 65% or something, whereas the market went from 75% to 30% - so I bought a ton of YES at this point. I also was looking at https://polymarket.com/market/will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-before-september-2022 which had a similar overreaction but corrected back up much faster than manifold. Someone could have arbitraged it, I didn't, I just bought yes on manifold.
@MattP this market is going crazy. I have 90 referrals from new members joining just to trade this market.
@MP this market has driven a ton of new sign ups. Seem to be largely Chinese users and they are all actively betting. So maybe they are the source of confidence.
“ Officials told The Associated Press that if Pelosi goes to Taiwan — still an uncertainty — the military would increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region. They declined to provide details, but said that fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would likely be used to provide overlapping rings of protection for her flight to Taiwan and any time on the ground there.” https://apnews.com/30bb4a00c7fd0e41c16b6791da6ad4a0
@sketch Why are you at no if the military is planning to send ships to protect her on her trip?
@MP I think Xi might be so aggressive with Biden on their call this week that Biden denies her the military transport she needs to make the trip. I don’t think he is going to get into a shooting war over a Congressional delegation.
@MP I think she is going to get bullied into not making the trip. Unfortunately this is just too much pressure from the unpredictable PLA.
@MP has a congressional delegation ever been threatened like this before? Seems unprecedented in recent memory.
@sketch Americans are too stubborn. If she wants to go, she'll go. Besides, no one will do any harm to the Speker of the House of the US. It's all about projecting power.