Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan during summer recess?

US Politics•World•China•Global Macro

146

105

Ṁ58K

Ṁ2.2K

resolved Aug 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves yes if Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan during the summer recess. resolves know if she does not.

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25 Comments

132 Holders

598 Trades

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predicted YES

Here are some quick thoughts on how I made so much betting on this market since @Austin asked about it: My main source of profits was that I thought the market way over-updated when Pelosi left for her Asia trip and her announced schedule didn't include Taiwan - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62367362. This announcement was not a surprise to me - it was already 90% clear to me that Pelosi's plan, if she was going to visit, would be to avoid making an official statement until she actually landed in Taiwan. So on this news I would have updated down from 75% to 65% or something, whereas the market went from 75% to 30% - so I bought a ton of YES at this point. I also was looking at https://polymarket.com/market/will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-before-september-2022 which had a similar overreaction but corrected back up much faster than manifold. Someone could have arbitraged it, I didn't, I just bought yes on manifold.

predicted YES

Looks like she just landed. Standby for resolution.

sold Ṁ300 of YES

Whoa. I'll cash out at 90%, sure.

predicted YES

@MattP this market is going crazy. I have 90 referrals from new members joining just to trade this market.

I have long gave up trying to forecast this one, but the odds here are quite surprising to me. What is giving MM such confidence?

predicted YES

@MP this market has driven a ton of new sign ups. Seem to be largely Chinese users and they are all actively betting. So maybe they are the source of confidence.

@BTE ty God they aren't betting with confidence that China will counter attack

bought Ṁ50 of YES

LFG https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/31/world/asia/pelosi-taiwan-china.amp.html

predicted YES

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/08/01/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit/index.html

💥 https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1554086730067738624

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Expecting cowardish response, but would like to be pleasantly surprised.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

https://www.flightradar24.com/SPAR19/2cde215e ✈️

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

that's a hard yes

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Buy here: https://manifold.markets/marthinwurer/will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-befo Sell here 👆

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Arb https://manifold.markets/marthinwurer/will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-befo

predicted NO

“ Officials told The Associated Press that if Pelosi goes to Taiwan — still an uncertainty — the military would increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region. They declined to provide details, but said that fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would likely be used to provide overlapping rings of protection for her flight to Taiwan and any time on the ground there.” https://apnews.com/30bb4a00c7fd0e41c16b6791da6ad4a0

predicted YES

@sketch Why are you at no if the military is planning to send ships to protect her on her trip?

predicted YES

@MP I think Xi might be so aggressive with Biden on their call this week that Biden denies her the military transport she needs to make the trip. I don’t think he is going to get into a shooting war over a Congressional delegation.

predicted NO

@MP I think she is going to get bullied into not making the trip. Unfortunately this is just too much pressure from the unpredictable PLA.

predicted NO

@MP do you think she goes if there is a possibility she gets marooned there?

predicted NO

@MP has a congressional delegation ever been threatened like this before? Seems unprecedented in recent memory.

predicted YES

@sketch Americans are too stubborn. If she wants to go, she'll go. Besides, no one will do any harm to the Speker of the House of the US. It's all about projecting power.

predicted YES

I don’t see a good reason for her to cancel her trip. If the CCP wants to do something about it that’s fine. They aren’t going to shoot down her plane and if they did they couldn’t just be like “we warned you”. It would be the beginning of the end of the CCP.