Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan during summer recess?
Resolved
YES
Aug 2
M$57,544 bet

💬 Proven correct

stormtk293
Stormtrooper TK-293 bought M$1,000 of YES
that's a hard yes
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Stormtrooper TK-293 made M$133!
jack
Jack is betting YES at 97%
Here are some quick thoughts on how I made so much betting on this market since @Austin asked about it: My main source of profits was that I thought the market way over-updated when Pelosi left for her Asia trip and her announced schedule didn't include Taiwan - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62367362. This announcement was not a surprise to me - it was already 90% clear to me that Pelosi's plan, if she was going to visit, would be to avoid making an official statement until she actually landed in Taiwan. So on this news I would have updated down from 75% to 65% or something, whereas the market went from 75% to 30% - so I bought a ton of YES at this point. I also was looking at https://polymarket.com/market/will-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-before-september-2022 which had a similar overreaction but corrected back up much faster than manifold. Someone could have arbitraged it, I didn't, I just bought yes on manifold.
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BTE
BTE is betting YES at 92%
Looks like she just landed. Standby for resolution.
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MattP
Matt P sold M$300 of YES
Whoa. I'll cash out at 90%, sure.
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BTE
BTE is betting YES at 90%
@MattP this market is going crazy. I have 90 referrals from new members joining just to trade this market.
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MP
I have long gave up trying to forecast this one, but the odds here are quite surprising to me. What is giving MM such confidence?
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BTE
BTE is betting YES at 91%
@MP this market has driven a ton of new sign ups. Seem to be largely Chinese users and they are all actively betting. So maybe they are the source of confidence.
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MP
@BTE ty God they aren't betting with confidence that China will counter attack
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M
M bought M$10 of NO
Expecting cowardish response, but would like to be pleasantly surprised.
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stormtk293
Stormtrooper TK-293 bought M$1,000 of YES
that's a hard yes
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sketch
Sketch is betting NO at 55%
“ Officials told The Associated Press that if Pelosi goes to Taiwan — still an uncertainty — the military would increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region. They declined to provide details, but said that fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would likely be used to provide overlapping rings of protection for her flight to Taiwan and any time on the ground there.” https://apnews.com/30bb4a00c7fd0e41c16b6791da6ad4a0
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MP
MP is betting YES at 70%
@sketch Why are you at no if the military is planning to send ships to protect her on her trip?
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BTE
BTE is betting YES at 70%
@MP I think Xi might be so aggressive with Biden on their call this week that Biden denies her the military transport she needs to make the trip. I don’t think he is going to get into a shooting war over a Congressional delegation.
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sketch
Sketch is betting NO at 70%
@MP I think she is going to get bullied into not making the trip. Unfortunately this is just too much pressure from the unpredictable PLA.
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sketch
Sketch is betting NO at 70%
@MP do you think she goes if there is a possibility she gets marooned there?
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sketch
Sketch is betting NO at 70%
@MP has a congressional delegation ever been threatened like this before? Seems unprecedented in recent memory.
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MP
MP is betting YES at 70%
@sketch Americans are too stubborn. If she wants to go, she'll go. Besides, no one will do any harm to the Speker of the House of the US. It's all about projecting power.
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BTE
BTE is betting YES at 33%
I don’t see a good reason for her to cancel her trip. If the CCP wants to do something about it that’s fine. They aren’t going to shoot down her plane and if they did they couldn’t just be like “we warned you”. It would be the beginning of the end of the CCP.
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