When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 15, 2030

Taiwan China Who does Xi think he is?

When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

71%

chance

Market will remain open until the PLA invasion has commenced and will resolve YES if the PLA strikes Taiwan's allies preemptively. Resolves NO if the Allies strike PLA targets before being hit themselves or if a declaration of war has been formally issued by the government of any party on either side. So if the PLA declares war on the Allies and then strikes first it would resolve NO. Only preemptive, unannounced precision strikes against high value assets will resolve YES.

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Is “precision” crucial to the resolution? It would be hard to judge if a Chinese strike on an Allied target was intentional (therefore “precision”) or just a wildly inaccurate misfire, given how accurate their small arms seem to be:

https://twitter.com/TachankaKity/status/1553749809676394502?s=20&t=xz6gf6jnGGOwzzNmrzHOyA

@Treldman Good question. I added precision to clarify that accidental or collateral damage wouldn't count. It doesn't need to be a guided missile, but it would probably need to be heavy artillery at the very least. I cannot imagine a scenario where small arms are involved in a preemptive strike on the Allies. If small arms fire is involved in the first contact between US and Chinese forces we both know its going to be coming from the SEALS as they storm the Forbidden City...

@BTE I primarily am joking about the quality of the products of China's military industry ;)

@Treldman Chinese military propaganda is truly hilarious. I guess when not a single member of the army has ever fired a single shot at a foreign adversary you feel the need to show how violent you can be. Lots of weird insecurities being laid bare.

bought Ṁ30 NO from 80% to 71%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 80% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 NO at 82% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ48 NO from 72% to 85%

Jeffrey Heninger

bought Ṁ10 NO from 75% to 72%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ47/Ṁ100 YES at 75% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 YES at 69% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 NO from 77% to 67%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 YES at 77% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ35 NO from 84% to 76%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 84%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 YES at 80% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 NO from 87% to 79%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 90% to 87%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ43/Ṁ100 YES at 90% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 NO from 94% to 88%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ34/Ṁ50 YES at 94% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ500 YES from 43% to 93%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 43% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ30 NO from 39% to 47%

Stefan Stoyanov

bought Ṁ10 NO from 42% to 39%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 45% to 42%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ150 YES at 45% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 43%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 46%

sold Ṁ2 NO from 49% to 50%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ4 YES at 49% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ7 YES from 50% to 48%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 50% (cancelled)

Annalise Norling

bought Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 53%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 48%

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ6 NO at 50% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ37 YES at 46% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ30 NO at 63% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ15 NO at 60% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ18 YES at 48% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 51%

created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 91% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 97% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 98% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ6 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 94% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 96% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 93% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ36 NO at 88% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ6 NO at 92% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ32 NO at 85% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ34 NO at 90% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ17 NO at 75% (cancelled)