When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?
71%
chance

Market will remain open until the PLA invasion has commenced and will resolve YES if the PLA strikes Taiwan's allies preemptively. Resolves NO if the Allies strike PLA targets before being hit themselves or if a declaration of war has been formally issued by the government of any party on either side. So if the PLA declares war on the Allies and then strikes first it would resolve NO. Only preemptive, unannounced precision strikes against high value assets will resolve YES.

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Treldman avatar

Is “precision” crucial to the resolution? It would be hard to judge if a Chinese strike on an Allied target was intentional (therefore “precision”) or just a wildly inaccurate misfire, given how accurate their small arms seem to be:

https://twitter.com/TachankaKity/status/1553749809676394502?s=20&t=xz6gf6jnGGOwzzNmrzHOyA

BTE avatar

@Treldman Good question. I added precision to clarify that accidental or collateral damage wouldn't count. It doesn't need to be a guided missile, but it would probably need to be heavy artillery at the very least. I cannot imagine a scenario where small arms are involved in a preemptive strike on the Allies. If small arms fire is involved in the first contact between US and Chinese forces we both know its going to be coming from the SEALS as they storm the Forbidden City...

Treldman avatar

@BTE I primarily am joking about the quality of the products of China's military industry ;)

BTE avatar

@Treldman Chinese military propaganda is truly hilarious. I guess when not a single member of the army has ever fired a single shot at a foreign adversary you feel the need to show how violent you can be. Lots of weird insecurities being laid bare.