
When will China invade Taiwan
109
1.8kṀ23k2050
6%
Before 2026
17%
Before 2027
23%
Before 2028
37%
Before 2029
41%
Before 2030
54%
Before 2035
62%
Before 2040
70%
Before 2050
Resolved
NOBefore 2025
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Daniel_MC I think this multi option markets tend to drift a bit away from the many arbitraged Y/N options
@Daniel_MC yeh it doesn’t make sense to me. I figured I’d make a neat profit from betting no on everything
You all should read more Noahpinion. War is coming. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update
@jonsimon I wonder if a blockade would play out similar to the Berlin blockage.
To clarify a blockade alone wouldn't cause this to resolve yes.
@Daniel_MC Would a several year blockade starving-out Taiwan followed by acquiesce followed by China "voluntarily" occupying Taiwan count?
@astyerche We need a question on which first, AGI or China invade Taiwan. Will the help of a BASED pro-US AGI, maybe Taiwan can invade China.
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