When will China invade Taiwan

102

1.8kṀ22k

2050

Before 2026

19%

Before 2027

30%

Before 2028

33%

Before 2029

36%

Before 2030

55%

Before 2035

64%

Before 2040

79%

Before 2050

Resolved

Before 2025

Must be an attempt at invading the main island.

A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count. It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this).

China Taiwan potential conflict

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