I think a 25% chance for 2028 is still really high, so I've made a single answer market to make it more obvious, we'll see if it lands in the same place.

@Daniel_MC yesssssss more arbs yessssss

fixing some of your lines to be obviously closer to accurate

36% for 2028 is so high!

Just sense checking this market, would people really stand by a 15% chance of China invading this year and a 36% chance of an invasion during the Trump presidency?

@Daniel_MC I think this multi option markets tend to drift a bit away from the many arbitraged Y/N options

@Daniel_MC yeh it doesn’t make sense to me. I figured I’d make a neat profit from betting no on everything

goated banner

You all should read more Noahpinion. War is coming. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update

@jonsimon I wonder if a blockade would play out similar to the Berlin blockage.

To clarify a blockade alone wouldn't cause this to resolve yes.

@Daniel_MC Would a several year blockade starving-out Taiwan followed by acquiesce followed by China "voluntarily" occupying Taiwan count?

@jonsimon that's gray.

At first glance I would say yes, a blockade is an act of war under international law, Taiwan surrenders, and troops occupy their territory.

Does anyone disagree @traders ? If not I'll update the criteria.

why no taiwan invade china

@astyerche We need a question on which first, AGI or China invade Taiwan. Will the help of a BASED pro-US AGI, maybe Taiwan can invade China.