If China invades Taiwan, will a nuclear war start?
9
Ṁ170Ṁ2902035
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve YES if more than 50 nuclear weapons are used in attacks within 3 years after China invades Taiwan. The nuclear weapons must be used in relation to the China-Taiwan war. The question will resolve N/A if China does not invade Taiwan by 2035.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
4% chance
If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?
62% chance
If China invades Taiwan while Donald Trump is president, will the U.S. go to war with China?
41% chance
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?
71% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by year's end?
15% chance
When will China invade Taiwan?
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
33% chance
When will China invade Taiwan
Conditional on China invading Taiwan, will any city get nuked before 2040?
21% chance
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?
28% chance