Alice Your New Best Friend's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.95
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Alice Your New Best Friend bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 660k subscribers in May?YESโแน70
- Will I get a 5 in AP Bio?YESโแน30
- Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?YESโแน20
70%
80%
- Will the UAP committee hearing on Youtube get at least 20k views by 8 PM EST on July 26, 2023?YESโแน40
- Will any single political party win a majority (>250 seats) in the Thai parliament following the elections on May 7th?NOโแน20
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESโแน20
90%
97%