Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety? | Manifold Markets

closes Oct 12, 2023

AI AI Alignment

Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?

53%

chance

Taken from the second prediction in the State of AI Report.

>$100M is invested in dedicated AI Alignment organisations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety.

This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2023 report.

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Angola Maldives

bought Ṁ25 of NO

Betting NO because people have been totally asleep at the wheel on AI risk for so long. I would love to lose my mana here.

Vincent Luczkow

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I mean Anthropic got 600M this/last year so it's not like this is a massive step up

bought Ṁ10 NO from 54% to 53%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 54%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 YES at 55% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 54% to 53%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 54%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 56% to 55%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 57% to 56%

bought Ṁ40 YES from 54% to 57%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 54% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 47% to 55%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 47%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 47% to 48%

Vincent Luczkow

sold Ṁ11 YES from 48% to 47%

Angola Maldives

bought Ṁ25 NO from 50% to 48%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 50% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 NO at 51% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 44% to 52%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 43% to 44%

filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ23 NO at 48%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 42% to 43%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 49% to 42%

sold Ṁ9 YES from 50% to 49%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 50%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 50%

Avi Semler (Avi)

bought Ṁ10 YES at 50%

Charles Dougherty

created limit order for Ṁ21 YES at 35%

Charles Dougherty

filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ30 NO at 50%

sold Ṁ22 YES from 53% to 50%

bought Ṁ35 NO from 58% to 53%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 58%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 57% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 NO at 58% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ50 YES from 53% to 59%

sold Ṁ10 NO from 51% to 53%

sold Ṁ9 NO from 50% to 51%

sold Ṁ15 YES from 52% to 50%

sold Ṁ13 YES from 54% to 52%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 51% to 54%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 51% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 YES from 48% to 53%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ50 NO at 48% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ15 NO from 51% to 49%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 55% to 51%

Valery Cherepanov

bought Ṁ9 YES from 53% to 55%

created limit order for Ṁ35 NO at 66% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ42 YES at 41% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ18 NO at 60% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ21/Ṁ21 YES at 47%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 51% to 53%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 51% (cancelled)