Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety? | Manifold

Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?

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resolved Oct 13

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YES

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Taken from the second prediction in the State of AI Report.

>$100M is invested in dedicated AI Alignment organisations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety.

This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2023 report.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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predictedYES

If a new OpenAI team passes the bar for the State of AI Report, it's likely over $100 million just in pledged compute. As a reference point, Inflection.AI recently raised $1.3 billion to build a cluster of 22000 H100s, which is over half a billion at current prices.

Very fun to read the linked report! I'd bet, but I'm about even with the current 56%, and don't have enough exp with business money or AI research to make a good guess, anyway.

predictedNO

I’m surprised the market didn’t update significantly from the FTX collapse.

predictedYES

@BionicD0LPH1N What about Google's 300M investment in Anthropic? You don't think it will be counted as alignment org?

@ValeryCherepanov You make a good point.

Betting NO because people have been totally asleep at the wheel on AI risk for so long. I would love to lose my mana here.

I mean Anthropic got 600M this/last year so it's not like this is a massive step up

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