Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?

AI•AI Alignment

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resolved Oct 13

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YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Taken from the second prediction in the State of AI Report.

>$100M is invested in dedicated AI Alignment organisations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety.

This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2023 report.

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predicted YES

If a new OpenAI team passes the bar for the State of AI Report, it's likely over $100 million just in pledged compute. As a reference point, Inflection.AI recently raised $1.3 billion to build a cluster of 22000 H100s, which is over half a billion at current prices.

Very fun to read the linked report! I'd bet, but I'm about even with the current 56%, and don't have enough exp with business money or AI research to make a good guess, anyway.

predicted NO

I’m surprised the market didn’t update significantly from the FTX collapse.

predicted YES

@BionicD0LPH1N What about Google's 300M investment in Anthropic? You don't think it will be counted as alignment org?

sold Ṁ57 of NO

@ValeryCherepanov You make a good point.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

Betting NO because people have been totally asleep at the wheel on AI risk for so long. I would love to lose my mana here.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I mean Anthropic got 600M this/last year so it's not like this is a massive step up

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By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

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AI questions

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Rabbit R1 before the end of April 2024?

AI Alignment questions

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk?

Related questions

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?

Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?

Will the US government require AI labs to run safety/alignment evals by 2025?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2024?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?