Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?

Bionic

closes Oct 12

82%

chance

ALL

Taken from the second prediction in the State of AI Report.

>$100M is invested in dedicated AI Alignment organisations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety.

This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2023 report.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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dppredicts YES

If a new OpenAI team passes the bar for the State of AI Report, it's likely over $100 million just in pledged compute. As a reference point, Inflection.AI recently raised $1.3 billion to build a cluster of 22000 H100s, which is over half a billion at current prices.

Tyler Coleman

Very fun to read the linked report! I'd bet, but I'm about even with the current 56%, and don't have enough exp with business money or AI research to make a good guess, anyway.

Bionicpredicts NO

I’m surprised the market didn’t update significantly from the FTX collapse.

2 replies

Valery Cherepanovpredicts YES

@BionicD0LPH1N What about Google's 300M investment in Anthropic? You don't think it will be counted as alignment org?

Bionicsold Ṁ57 of NO

@ValeryCherepanov You make a good point.

Angola Maldivesbought Ṁ25 of NO

Betting NO because people have been totally asleep at the wheel on AI risk for so long. I would love to lose my mana here.

Vincent Luczkowbought Ṁ10 of YES

I mean Anthropic got 600M this/last year so it's not like this is a massive step up

dp sold Ṁ18 NO from 82% to 83%

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Pip Foweraker bought Ṁ150 YES from 81% to 82%

harfe sold Ṁ31 YES at 81%

dp bought Ṁ20 NO from 82% to 81%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ98/Ṁ100 YES at 82% (cancelled) 🤖

dp sold Ṁ294 YES from 84% to 81%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ81/Ṁ100 NO at 84% (cancelled) 🤖

Tom DAVID filled limit order Ṁ800/Ṁ800 YES at 88%

George bought Ṁ50 YES from 80% to 81%

Symmetry bought Ṁ25 YES at 80%

David Rein bought Ṁ25 YES from 79% to 80%

Nils bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

Sorin Tanase Nicola bought Ṁ50 YES at 79%

Long Hoang bought Ṁ10 YES from 78% to 79%

Michael bought Ṁ20 YES at 78%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ57/Ṁ100 YES at 78% (cancelled) 🤖

Valery Cherepanov bought Ṁ100 YES from 75% to 77%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ31/Ṁ100 NO at 75% (cancelled) 🤖

Denial sold Ṁ53 NO from 74% to 77%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 74% 🤖

mai bought Ṁ100 NO from 78% to 71%

Dean Berwick bought Ṁ10 YES from 77% to 78%

Steintim bought Ṁ20 YES at 77%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ85/Ṁ100 YES at 77% (cancelled) 🤖

Denial bought Ṁ50 NO from 79% to 75%

firstuserhere sold Ṁ987 YES from 89% to 79%

Camille Perrin bought Ṁ1 NO from 90% to 89%

Kamil Staszewski bought Ṁ10 NO at 90%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ100 YES from 89% to 90%

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