Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?
closes Oct 12

Taken from the second prediction in the State of AI Report.

  1. >$100M is invested in dedicated AI Alignment organisations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety.

This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2023 report.

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dp avatar
dppredicts YES

If a new OpenAI team passes the bar for the State of AI Report, it's likely over $100 million just in pledged compute. As a reference point, Inflection.AI recently raised $1.3 billion to build a cluster of 22000 H100s, which is over half a billion at current prices.

TylerColeman avatar
Tyler Coleman

Very fun to read the linked report! I'd bet, but I'm about even with the current 56%, and don't have enough exp with business money or AI research to make a good guess, anyway.

BionicD0LPH1N avatar
Bionicpredicts NO

I’m surprised the market didn’t update significantly from the FTX collapse.

2 replies
qumeric avatar
Valery Cherepanovpredicts YES

@BionicD0LPH1N What about Google's 300M investment in Anthropic? You don't think it will be counted as alignment org?

BionicD0LPH1N avatar
Bionicsold Ṁ57 of NO

@ValeryCherepanov You make a good point.

AngolaMaldives avatar
Angola Maldivesbought Ṁ25 of NO

Betting NO because people have been totally asleep at the wheel on AI risk for so long. I would love to lose my mana here.

vluzko avatar
Vincent Luczkowbought Ṁ10 of YES

I mean Anthropic got 600M this/last year so it's not like this is a massive step up