Will Isaac King still be active on manifold a month after Whales vs Minnows
57
496
1.1k
resolved Jun 13
Resolved
NO

With his portfolio completely wiped out it isn't looking good for Isaac. Will he start fresh as a minnow or is this the last we'll hear of him?

This market resolves to YES if @IsaacKing (or any alts unambiguously owned and operated by him) is still actively commenting, creating markets, and betting a month after WvM concludes similar to his activity prior. I'll take some discretion in deciding what constitutes active, e.g. if his only activity is to maintain existing markets I'll count that as NO. 

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It’s maybe not 100% unambiguous, but his only real activity is maintaining existing markets, so clearly a change since WvM. Therefore, I’m using my power to resolve this on behalf of the creator. If they disagree, they can contact DavidChee, the Community Manager, to get it re-resolved.

predicted NO

Despite what @Conflux said about resolving this market I do think this is very much a NO resolution by the simple fact, that the criteria of "similar to his activity prior" has inarguably not been met. Isaac has stated himself that he 'quits' Manifold and his last comments (on his main account) are bunched up in bundles 11 days ago and 15 days ago.
Unless someone knows of one of his alts that showcases similar levels of activity as those of Isaac's main prior to WvM, how is there any uncertainty in the resolution still?

predicted NO

Please resolve

predicted NO

So is he still active?

predicted NO

@NicoDelon I've linked this market in #please-resolve, and pinged turbio on discord. I think this market can safely be resolved NO by any Trustworthy-ish user. Perhaps @Conflux could help us.

@MayMeta I agree that this should be resolved NO, but I don't think it's indisputable (since he has taken some small actions beyond resolving his markets), so I'd be a bit reluctant.

8 days - meets criteria for resolution (unresolved markets policy).

predicted NO

Please someone resolve.

@NicoDelon I guess I should just do this now

bought Ṁ800 of NO

2.5 weeks have passed and he only maintains the existing markets, as he said he would.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I am convinced that the bets on the test (this one) market should be disqualified, because they are obviously scripted (they happen exactly on the 15-th minute and 29-th second of almost every hour). Isaac made his last sensible bet on May 16th, and the last one before that on May 9th. Comments are all market-resolution related. Last market created Will someone help me figure out what to do in WvM (April 25th).

An obvious NO resolution, imo

predicted NO
bought Ṁ60 of NO

'actively commenting, creating markets, and betting'

That is an and gate. He is only maintaining existing markets, commenting not actively, but to achieve the same aim, and has announced to quit. This sensibly should resolve to NO in ten days.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

ends up Isaac announced his departure a week ago. he's explicitly only resolving markets and winding down his engagement

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-help-me-figure-out-what#0picAmmnOOROot4XsCRh

predicted NO

@turb Are the last few comments from Isaac "maintaining existing markets"? Seems like most of them fall into that category, albeit very active management.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Is this about the account or the person? If he is active using alts (like @IsaacKing2 ), does this resolve YES?

@FlorisvanDoorn since the title says "Isaac King" I'll say this is about the person and include any alts unambiguously operated by him.

He might have trouble creating markets if his balance remains negative

@Frankt I imagine it's gonna really depend on what the manifold team decides to do once the market has wrapped up. Sounds like they're planning to forgive the debt. I imagine they'll want to retain Isaac was he was one of the most active users and contributed a lot to the community.