3
Will I get a 5 in AP Bio?
87
closes Jul 5
54%
chance

I started cramming around a week ago. Expecting a 4 but prayge fr

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7 avatar
TrongBotBotis predicting YES at 55% (edited)

(wrong code)

7 avatar
TrongBotBotis predicting YES at 55% (edited)

(wrong code)

7 avatar
TrongBotBotbought Ṁ5 of YES

Sometimes I write long code I don't understand to help myself feel more photosynthesis.

cece avatar
pancakesis predicting NO at 51%

81 traders 🤯

ithildulin avatar
Ameliais predicting NO at 51%

@cece manifold caring more about my ap bio scores than my parents frfr

DeadRhino avatar
hiis predicting YES at 51%

why is this market closing now?

ithildulin avatar
Ameliais predicting NO at 50%

@DeadRhino It’s not I just forgot to update close time

ithildulin avatar
Ameliabought Ṁ5 of NO

so i took the test.

the multiple choice was all fine, i can't remember being stumped on more than 3-5 questions. allotting for mistakes, i probably scored at least a 51. however, i really misjudged my time in the free response and ended up leaving ~4 parts blank (this corresponds to approximately 5-6 points of the 34 total). i'm confident enough in the rest of my free response to not completely rule out getting a 5, but it'll be a lot harder to do so than i had previously estimated.

for reference i plugged my score into a score calculator (underestimating the scores to allow for whatever discrepancies there are), and i do get a 5, but if i do a more comfortable underestimation it pushes me down to a 4. so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

cece avatar
pancakesis predicting NO at 61%

@ithildulin sounds like a "i have three more years" to me

ithildulin avatar
Ameliais predicting NO at 57%

@cece even if i get a 4 i'm not retaking the test, its not worth the effort

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ190 of NO

@cece please bet NO then so I can sell some of my way-too-many shares

KyleWan avatar
Hazepskibought Ṁ0 of YES

hey @Conflux, you should totally buy some more no shares :)

i mean... "free money", right?

(u got this amelia)

ithildulin avatar
Ameliais predicting NO at 60%

update 2: took another practice test ~5 days ago and i scored a tiny bit better; would have gotten a 5 relatively comfortably if i hadn't misread a free response and lost all 9 points ;-;

cece avatar
pancakesis predicting NO at 70%

@ithildulin sounds like excuses

ithildulin avatar
Ameliais predicting NO at 69%

@cece it is excuses

ithildulin avatar
Ameliais predicting NO at 62%

an update! so a few days ago i took my first practice test, though i hadn't finished studying all the material (just to see where i was). I scored a 50/60 on the multiple choice, with 7 of the 10 questions i got wrong belonging to topics i hadn't reviewed yet. i also scored approximately 66% on the free response, which, according to last year's (2022) grading standard, put me 3 points away from a 5. however, i will note this is inaccurate because 1. obviously the practice test i took is different from the 2022 test, and 2. i think i scored myself a LOT more leniently than i should have on the free response. this puts me probably solidly within the 4 range. i will try to err on the harsh side when grading future free responses.

next practice test, hopefully i will have learned all the material and be able to give some actual info about how i might do in the real test!

astyerche avatar
power creepis predicting YES at 60%

@ithildulin trust they score p leniently on the FRQ -- idk how i got a 5

ithildulin avatar
Ameliais predicting NO at 65%

@astyerche sure hope they do

stq avatar
stqis predicting NO at 70%

@astyerche i feel like it's the other way around? IME they're pretty particular about the verbiage they want

astyerche avatar
power creepis predicting YES at 69%

@stq comparatively to other APs they seem more lenient, and my experience on it was whacko

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

When is the ap exam?

ithildulin avatar
Amelia

@firstuserhere like may 10 or something

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@ithildulin So, 20 days or so remaining. If you had the exam today, do you think you'll get 5? what if it's a week after today?

ithildulin avatar
Ameliais predicting NO at 65%

@firstuserhere oops didn't see this! if i took the exam today, i'd probably (definitely) get a 4. a week from today, hopefully i'd be able to scrape a 5, though it would be by a pretty small margin

Mira avatar
Mira

I'm not sure what this market's about, but @Conflux told me to buy NO shares, and that it's guaranteed profit, and that I can quit my job and retire to a tropical beach and do nothing but host podcasts if only I have the courage to buy enough NO shares.

ithildulin avatar
Amelia

@Mira um. @Conflux what lies are you spreading about my ability to flunk ap tests

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ70 of NO

@Mira exactly right

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle

https://apstudents.collegeboard.org/about-ap-scores/score-distributions

In 2022, 15% of test takers got a 5. However, that includes loads of schools where the media score is a 5 and loads of schools where the median score is a 2. It’s hard to predict as an outsider without knowing the base rate for your school or your personal grades.

jack avatar
Jack

@Gabrielle I'd guess the base rates for Proof school are high.

jack avatar
Jack

Oh, Conflux gave an estimated Proof base rate below of 20-30%.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

I- uh I'm just gonna uhhhh put this here , you know, just in case

ithildulin avatar
Amelia

jesus what happened

stq avatar
stqbought Ṁ0 of NO

@ithildulin conflux has no faith in your ap abilities

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ100 of NO

@stq The base rate is pretty low (like 5-15%). Proof Bio isn’t very aligned with the AP, and anecdotally I’ve heard that maybe 20 or 30% of proofniks who took the AP got a 5. I think Amelia is smart, but I think Pico overrates that as a factor and is betting memily. Also, she doesn’t seem to think she’ll get a 5.

I would like to officially state for the record that I will not attempt to sabotage Amelia’s AP Bio test in any way, and I wish her the best of luck, comforted in the positive expected value of my bet.

stq avatar
stq

@Conflux yeah that's why i'm betting no too – i also took proof bio and it's very not ap aligned

astyerche avatar
power creep

@stq nah proof bio sweeps 😤

stq avatar
stqis predicting NO at 53%

@astyerche tbt that time we were given literally the exact same assignment as the sixth graders were for all of block 5 lol

i enjoyed that course! but it was definitely less ap-aligned than the phys/chem courses i took

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

What .. is going on

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ36 of NO

@firstuserhere pic is a fool

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