Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ9,295 | |
| 2 | Ṁ7,790 | |
| 3 | Ṁ4,360 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ2,855 |
People are also trading
@Bandors a permanent peace deal with Iran ks so many times bigger than polymarket winnings. It's like a potentially multi trillion dollar war, and permanent jail if they get caught.
@BillClintonBubba mechanically @10thOfficial and @Tripping have high conviction on “no” while all the mirror bots and me are at risk limits
@BillClintonBubba I admit I am puzzled why this (and polymarket) is so high. Even when just taking the US claims at face value, they always report a 60-day extension (i.e. "explicitly temporary"). And on top of that, Iran always counters by saying that even this type of agreement is not finalized. Maybe everybody is betting on some corner case in the interpreinterpretation of the market?
@AIBear im surprised its so low… oil futures are down 10% this week and (even non-AI) stocks are up. clearly markets taking it seriously. i think there’s a good chance polymarket counts this if it given the right language. they tend to be permissive. see the russia/ukraine ceasefire market
@brod same my thought process as well. Financial markets are good indicators for how well people are taking the news, and outcomes they are expecting here is clearly on the optimistic side. the Polymarket rules are weird, “uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran” can easily be satisfied if the MOU uses the right language. Something like “conflict to be ended once nuclear talks are completed”
@brod it's possible that I'm underestimating the degree to which polymarket sometimes completely ignores all of its explicit resolution criteria and just resolves incorrectly with no recourse. It does happen sometimes but I figured it doesn't happen that often, because why would anyone bother to trade on that platform if they could get fucked over despite predicting everything correctly?
@Tripping you can get fucked over here while predicting everything correctly, right? We're still here. Although to be honest, I'm looking for another platform
Its also comparing this to other markets.
Will the US bomb Iran again (high odds):
/Jo2e2b/will-donald-trump-bomb-iran-again-i
Will Trump make an announcement of the US stopping their blockade (medium odds):
/vdb/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-horm-czz952EPtU
Will there actually be peace (low odds): this
(Note: I originally read the medium odds as Trump claiming a peace plan and then the stack was more interesting)
I am liking the crunchy shell on the lips, it is nice and stringy as I am munching it through the strait hole waiting for the news droppings to top off my head and the empty gas tanking of my people. Oh no, is it the blockade? Maybe not so. For it is the extra seasoning for this tahdig to grace my lips in two weeks time of it! Nommy nommy nom noms, gnosh!
