On May 3, 2026, Iran proposed a 14-point peace plan to the United States with a 30-day window to resolve outstanding issues. President Trump publicly stated he is reviewing the plan but expressed doubt it would lead to a deal. Polymarket comparable: 'US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31' currently at 14% YES. RESOLVES YES if the US and Iranian governments sign a formal peace, framework, or comprehensive agreement that incorporates substantive provisions from Iran's 14-point plan on or before 23:59 UTC September 30, 2026. Source: official US executive branch and Iranian government statements + reputable press confirmation that the agreement signed is based on the 14-point proposal. RESOLVES NO if no agreement is signed by the deadline, OR if an agreement is signed that does NOT substantively incorporate the 14-point plan (e.g., a parallel framework that ignores Iran's proposal). Modified versions still count as YES if they explicitly reference or build on the 14-point plan.