The 2026 US-Iran war began Feb 28 with US/Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei. As of April 29, 2026: a ceasefire is in effect (extended open-ended on April 21), Hormuz remains under US naval blockade, and bilateral negotiations are deadlocked over uranium enrichment limits and Hormuz reopening. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, the US and Iran sign and publicly announce a formal bilateral agreement that ENDS the state of war (not just a ceasefire extension). The agreement must explicitly terminate the conflict — language like 'ending hostilities' or 'cessation of war' — and both governments must confirm. RESOLVES NO if (a) no such agreement is signed by the deadline, (b) only a ceasefire extension is reached without ending the war, or (c) hostilities resume before any formal end-of-war deal.
1,000Setting context for bettors:
Where we are (Apr 29):
The 2026 US-Iran war began Feb 28; Mojtaba Khamenei was named successor to his assassinated father Mar 9.
A two-week ceasefire was signed Apr 8 and extended open-ended Apr 21 (Trump: "until discussions conclude one way or the other").
US naval blockade of Hormuz "fully implemented" since Apr 15.
Vance-led talks in Islamabad failed Apr 12. Iran proposal Apr 28 offered Hormuz reopening contingent on US blockade lift but did NOT touch nuclear enrichment — Trump publicly unhappy.
Why 28% feels roughly right (not lower): US position requires 20-year uranium enrichment suspension; Iran has offered 3-5 years. Wide gap, real sticking point. Four months (May-Aug) is short to close that.
Why 28% feels roughly right (not higher): Blockade costs Iran ~M$435M/day — unsustainable. Trump publicly motivated by an end-of-war deal. Mediator track active. Both sides have political incentive to finish before US midterms.
The market resolves YES only if both sides SIGN a formal end-of-war agreement (not a ceasefire extension). That's a higher bar than "reach a deal." Ceasefire-extension-only outcome resolves NO.