Following escalating local disruptions in late 2025, Iran enforced a near-total nationwide internet blackout on January 8, 2026, to suppress protests and obscure human rights abuses. Despite a brief easing, joint US-Israeli military strikes on February 28 triggered a secondary, historic blackout that collapsed connectivity to 1% before President Pezeshkian ordered its end on May 25, 2026.
The standoff remains highly volatile, as reflected by tracking data:
⚠️ Internet connectivity remains cut in #Iran with the digital blackout now having entered its 88th day, surpassing 2088 hours of isolation from the outside world. Metrics confirm the shutdown currently remains in effect despite the president's order yesterday to restore access. — NetBlocks (@netblocks), May 26, 2026 https://x.com/netblocks/status/2059172835700957289
This digital paralysis is explicitly tied to a broader regional conflict. While Pakistan-mediated negotiations in Islamabad have reportedly finalized 95% of a diplomatic framework to end the war and reopen the choked Strait of Hormuz, the Truce remains incredibly fragile. Minor violations on the ground and intense institutional pushback inside Tehran mean the situation could easily pivot toward a formalized, signed peace accord, internal political gridlock, or a swift return to open kinetic warfare.
Only one option in this market can resolve YES. The pool will resolve to the first specific milestone to definitively occur in full.
Rules of Play
Primary Sources: Technical routing metrics will be evaluated via NetBlocks. Diplomatic and military events will be adjudicated via mainstream international press wires (Reuters, Associated Press).
Timestamp Tie-Breaker: If two separate events are documented as occurring on the exact same calendar day, the market resolves to whichever milestone holds the earlier recorded UTC timestamp.
Resolution Criteria
[NETBLOCKS RECOVERY]: Resolves to YES if NetBlocks publishes country-level network metrics or an official statement verifying that nationwide public internet connectivity in Iran has reached or exceeded 75% of pre-January 2026 baseline levels for a continuous 24-hour window. This tracks the technical execution of President Pezeshkian’s executive decree over security apparatus resistance. Restricting access to state-approved internal networks (National Information Network), localized government whitelists, or premium tiered packages for officials does not satisfy this criterion; the baseline must reflect general civilian traffic availability.
[US TREATY SIGNED]: Resolves to YES if the US White House, the US Department of State, or Iranian state media (IRNA) formally announces the execution and signing of a final, formal treaty, comprehensive bilateral agreement, or binding peace accord terminating the state of war between the United States and Iran. A mere verbal agreement to extend a temporary ceasefire or truce window does not qualify.
[KINETIC ATTACK]: Resolves to YES if a fresh round of direct, state-on-state kinetic military engagements breaks out—specifically confirmed airborne, missile, drone, or naval strikes conducted by US or Israeli forces targeting infrastructure or assets within sovereign Iranian territory, or vice versa.
None of the above occur before September 1, 2026: Resolves to YES if the current baseline remains locked in a standoff, or if none of the three distinct milestones above completely clear their parameters before 23:59 GMT+3 on August 31, 2026.
Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The [KINETIC ATTACK] criterion requires a verified state-on-state kinetic attack initiated strictly after the market's start time of May 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM GMT+3. Events occurring before this time (such as the U.S. strikes on May 25) do not qualify for resolution.
Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding [NETBLOCKS RECOVERY]: The creator is waiting for a clear, unambiguous report that connectivity has exceeded 75% for a continuous 24-hour window. Reports of being "in a state of restoration for 24 hours" are insufficient. Additionally, reports of heavy filtering, restrictions on messaging apps and app stores, and Cloudflare data suggesting limited general civilian access would contradict the resolution criterion requiring general civilian traffic availability.
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The evidence implies a borderline case for resolution. The rules state: "Only one option in this market can resolve YES. The pool will resolve to the first specific milestone to definitively occur in full."
To ensure fairness before I resolve the market, I want to provide an opportunity for participants to share further evidence, interpretations, or opinions.
The earlier NetBlocks report posted by @ChadCotty includes a chart showing a visible recovery "exceeded 75% for a continuous 24-hour window" (reported at 2:22 PM · May 27, 2026 GMT+3).
Recent netblocks report clarifies some "users still face heavy filtering", but overall, "connectivity has now largely returned".
(2) NetBlocks on X: "🗓️ Three months ago today #Iran shut off access to the global internet. While connectivity has now largely returned, metrics indicate that users still face heavy filtering, similar to the interim period between the January protests and the start of the war. https://t.co/3Hqw4IWZb5" / X
(reported at 12:01 PM · May 28, 2026 GMT+3)
The recent Cloudflare report says "network activity is currently just 40% of pre-shutdown levels"
(2) Cloudflare on X: "Cloudflare Radar data confirms early indications of a partial Internet restoration in Iran, nearly three months after the shutdown began. Traffic spikes and DNS queries have risen, but network activity is currently just 40% of pre-shutdown levels. https://t.co/N9AODPsI62" / X
(reported at 8:57 PM · May 27, 2026 GMT+3)
There have been confirmed "purely defensive, and intended to maintain the ceasefire" military actions:
Exclusive: US carries out new strikes in Iran against a military site and drones, official says | Reuters
"WASHINGTON, May 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. military carried out new strikes overnight in Iran targeting a military site and shooting down four Iranian one-way attack drones that posed a threat around the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. official told Reuters on Wednesday."
(reported at May 28, 2026 2:28 AM GMT+3)
@ChadCotty it looks like a probable resolution now, but I'm waiting for clear unambiguous report of "exceeded 75% for a continuous 24-hour window".
The "in a state of restoration for 24 hours" is not clear enough.
Also, note the "Service remains heavily filtered, with new restrictions on messaging and app stores compared to pre-January", replies like "The internet is still filtered and not open for the ordinary people" and cloudflare data which overall contradict the critera: "the baseline must reflect general civilian traffic availability".
Shouldn't "KINETIC ATTACK" resolve YES? If not, could you clarify what is the bar?
> The US said it launched new strikes on southern Iran on Monday, targeting Iranian missile sites ...
Sounds quite like "confirmed airborne, missile, drone, or naval strikes conducted by US or Israeli forces targeting infrastructure or assets within sovereign Iranian territory"
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgzzn4y1n8o
@AIBear It should not resolve to YES because the linked report refers entirely to actions that took place prior to the market's creation.
The U.S. strikes occurred on Monday, May 25, whereas this market was opened later on Tuesday, May 26, at 4:00 PM GMT+3. To trigger a YES resolution, a verified state-on-state kinetic attack must be initiated strictly after the market's designated start time.
@231007 Oh, I see, wasn't monitoring the times that closely. But I'll presume that a similar action would in principle resolve (though that's likely moot given the Internet developments)