Endorsed AI slop:

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if a class action lawsuit filed against Polymarket (Blockratize, Inc.), UMA (Risk Labs Foundation), and/or associated entities regarding the resolution of the "US x Iran permanent peace deal" market(s) results in a successful outcome. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

A "successful class action lawsuit" is defined as meeting both of the following conditions:

1. Class Action Status: A lawsuit is filed as a class action in a US state or federal court (or other recognized court of law) on behalf of a class of traders who lost funds due to the resolution of the "US x Iran permanent peace deal" market(s) on Polymarket.

2. Successful Resolution: The lawsuit ends in one of the following:

   • A final court judgment in favor of the plaintiff class, awarding damages, restitution, or other monetary/injunctive relief, which is not overturned on appeal.

   • A class-wide settlement agreement that receives final court approval (e.g., under Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 23(e) or state equivalent) and results in a settlement fund or other compensable relief for class members.

Notes and Edge Cases:

• Dismissals: If all filed class actions are dismissed with prejudice, resolved in favor of the defendants, or settled only on an individual (non-class) basis, the market resolves to NO.

• Cutoff Date: Cutoff date of December 31, 2028. If no qualifying class action has achieved a final court judgment or final settlement approval by that date, the market will resolve to NO.

• Source of Truth: Official court filings and dockets (such as PACER for US federal courts) or reputable legal and financial news outlets.

Background

In mid-June 2026, a major dispute erupted on Polymarket surrounding the "US x Iran permanent peace deal" prediction markets (representing over $345 million in total trading volume). Following announcements of an interim 60-day agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the market was resolved to "YES" via UMA's decentralized oracle voting system.

Many traders vehemently contested this resolution, arguing that an interim 60-day framework did not satisfy the market's strict rules requiring a "permanent" peace deal. Critics pointed to potential collusion and manipulation by UMA "whales" holding concentrated voting power, leading to widespread allegations of contract fraud and threats of class action litigation. While Polymarket has faced class actions in early 2026 regarding the legality of its platform (such as Yoon v. Blockratize and Diego v. Blockratize), a lawsuit specifically contesting the UMA oracle's contract resolution process and seeking the recovery of trading losses would represent a major precedent.