[US TREATY SIGNED] Formal US-Iran treaty or binding peace accord is officially signed

[NETBLOCKS RECOVERY] NetBlocks confirms Iran global internet traffic recovers to >75%

[KINETIC ATTACK] Direct US or Israeli military strikes against Iran (or vice versa) resume

None of the above occur before September 1, 2026

Following escalating local disruptions in late 2025, Iran enforced a near-total nationwide internet blackout on January 8, 2026, to suppress protests and obscure human rights abuses. Despite a brief easing, joint US-Israeli military strikes on February 28 triggered a secondary, historic blackout that collapsed connectivity to 1% before President Pezeshkian ordered its end on May 25, 2026.

The standoff remains highly volatile, as reflected by tracking data:

⚠️ Internet connectivity remains cut in #Iran with the digital blackout now having entered its 88th day, surpassing 2088 hours of isolation from the outside world. Metrics confirm the shutdown currently remains in effect despite the president's order yesterday to restore access. — 

https://x.com/netblocks/status/2059172835700957289

This digital paralysis is explicitly tied to a broader regional conflict. While Pakistan-mediated negotiations in Islamabad have reportedly finalized 95% of a diplomatic framework to end the war and reopen the choked Strait of Hormuz, the Truce remains incredibly fragile. Minor violations on the ground and intense institutional pushback inside Tehran mean the situation could easily pivot toward a formalized, signed peace accord, internal political gridlock, or a swift return to open kinetic warfare.

Only one option in this market can resolve 

. The pool will resolve to the first specific milestone to definitively occur in full.