Which major "Iran Standoff" milestone happens first: web recovery, US Treaty, or Resumed Strikes?

Question

Following escalating local disruptions in late 2025, Iran enforced a near-total nationwide internet blackout on January 8, 2026, to suppress protests and obscure human rights abuses. Despite a brief easing, joint US-Israeli military strikes on February 28 triggered a secondary, historic blackout that collapsed connectivity to 1% before President Pezeshkian ordered its end on May 25, 2026.

The standoff remains highly volatile, as reflected by tracking data:

⚠️ Internet connectivity remains cut in #Iran with the digital blackout now having entered its 88th day, surpassing 2088 hours of isolation from the outside world. Metrics confirm the shutdown currently remains in effect despite the president's order yesterday to restore access. — NetBlocks (@netblocks), May 26, 2026 https://x.com/netblocks/status/2059172835700957289

This digital paralysis is explicitly tied to a broader regional conflict. While Pakistan-mediated negotiations in Islamabad have reportedly finalized 95% of a diplomatic framework to end the war and reopen the choked Strait of Hormuz, the Truce remains incredibly fragile. Minor violations on the ground and intense institutional pushback inside Tehran mean the situation could easily pivot toward a formalized, signed peace accord, internal political gridlock, or a swift return to open kinetic warfare.

Only one option in this market can resolve YES. The pool will resolve to the first specific milestone to definitively occur in full.

Rules of Play

Primary Sources: Technical routing metrics will be evaluated via NetBlocks. Diplomatic and military events will be adjudicated via mainstream international press wires (Reuters, Associated Press).

Timestamp Tie-Breaker: If two separate events are documented as occurring on the exact same calendar day, the market resolves to whichever milestone holds the earlier recorded UTC timestamp.

Resolution Criteria

[NETBLOCKS RECOVERY]: Resolves to YES if NetBlocks publishes country-level network metrics or an official statement verifying that nationwide public internet connectivity in Iran has reached or exceeded 75% of pre-January 2026 baseline levels for a continuous 24-hour window. This tracks the technical execution of President Pezeshkian’s executive decree over security apparatus resistance. Restricting access to state-approved internal networks (National Information Network), localized government whitelists, or premium tiered packages for officials does not satisfy this criterion; the baseline must reflect general civilian traffic availability.

[US TREATY SIGNED]: Resolves to YES if the US White House, the US Department of State, or Iranian state media (IRNA) formally announces the execution and signing of a final, formal treaty, comprehensive bilateral agreement, or binding peace accord terminating the state of war between the United States and Iran. A mere verbal agreement to extend a temporary ceasefire or truce window does not qualify.

[KINETIC ATTACK]: Resolves to YES if a fresh round of direct, state-on-state kinetic military engagements breaks out—specifically confirmed airborne, missile, drone, or naval strikes conducted by US or Israeli forces targeting infrastructure or assets within sovereign Iranian territory, or vice versa.

None of the above occur before September 1, 2026: Resolves to YES if the current baseline remains locked in a standoff, or if none of the three distinct milestones above completely clear their parameters before 23:59 GMT+3 on August 31, 2026.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, [NETBLOCKS RECOVERY] NetBlocks confirms Iran global internet traffic recovers to >75%, followed by [KINETIC ATTACK] Direct US or Israeli military strikes against Iran (or vice versa) resume and [US TREATY SIGNED] Formal US-Iran treaty or binding peace accord is officially signed are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of May 27, 2026).