Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if, between April 25th, 2026, and December 31, 2026, there is an official confirmation from the United States government or credible, widely reported international news coverage (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) of a kinetic military strike by the US under Donald Trump against Iranian territory.

The strike must be carried out by United States military forces. "Bombing" is defined as the use of air-launched munitions, cruise missiles, or ballistic missiles. This market resolves to "No" if no such action occurs within the 2026 calendar year.