Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the primary cause of the recent flooding in Dubai as identified by a consensus of reliable news sources and meteorological reports. If no single cause is identified by these sources, the market will resolve based on the most frequently cited factor among the sources.
Resolution will be based on reports and data from:
UAE's National Centre of Meteorology
Independent meteorological assessments
Local news reports detailing the events and causes
Each choice represents a possible cause for the flooding. The market will resolve to YES for the cause(s) that is/are most supported by the evidence as per the criteria above.
I am open to clarifications and discussions about what choices to add in the comments, and how to resolve the question as information surfaces.
Due to nuances in resolution, I will not trade in this market.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ120 | |
| 2 | Ṁ99 | |
| 3 | Ṁ65 | |
| 4 | Ṁ40 | |
| 5 | Ṁ33 |
Can we get this market resolved soon? Don't think we are getting much closer than this
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/25/climate/dubai-floods-climate-weather-analysis-int/index.html
THIS IS A QUOTE FROM WIKIPEDIA REGARDING PREVIOUS FLOODING OCCURRING in UAE CAUSED BY CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENTS-The influx of rainfall from cloud seeding greatly affects the non-equipped infrastructure of the UAE. A cloud seeding experiment conducted in October 2019 by the UAE National Center of Meteorology & Seismology as part of the UAE Research Program for Rain Enhancement Science in January 2020 resulted in flooding.[25][26] In 2020, a flood resulted from a cloud seeding experiment conducted in 2019 by the UAE National Center of Meteorology & Seismology as part of the UAE Research Program for Rain Enhancement Science. Pumps were needed to remove excess water because drainage systems could not handle the volume of water, severely impacting commercial and residential areas.[26] It is estimated that the UAE will invest 500 million dirhams ($136.1 million) to protect against flooding of infrastructure and transportation after severe artificial storms.[26]
****Providing this only as information that previous flooding in UAE has occurred 3 months after cloud seeding. The UAE National Center of Meteorology's explanation for the current flood is that
"'it had tracked the incoming heavy rain but did not target any clouds during that period"...leaving open the possiblility that they still may have caused the flooding months prior.
@AGG If you follow the link that your Wikipedia article quotes, there is no mention of seeding having an effect 3 months after the fact (https://wired.me/science/environment/cloud-seeding-uae-dubai-rain-floods/) . Although as stated in my other comment, the UAE National Center of Meteorology stated they did not cloud seed for this particular weather system at all, "We take the safety of our people, pilots, and aircrafts very seriously," AlYazeedi said. "The NCM does not conduct cloud seeding operations during extreme weather events.".
In addition, that's not how cloud seeding works. It's localized and short term (e.g. takes around 30 mins to go into effect and only affects particular clouds or groups of clouds that would be long gone by the following day). Read here for some basics on cloud seeding: https://www.library.nd.gov/statedocs/WaterCommission/SeedingQ&A2010Web20140214.pdf
Several mainstream media reports in last few hours quoting UAE National Centre of Meteorology stating that cloud seeding not involved:
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/dubai-united-arab-emirates-cloud-seeding-rain-floods-rcna148263
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/04/17/dubai-flood-rains-cloud-seeding/#:~:text=The%20UAE%20National%20Center%20of,the%20center%20were%20not%20successful.
Market of a similar type of question: https://manifold.markets/MKowal/what-causes-recent-acceleration-of
@siraben "year's worth of rain in 2 days" may be a rare event, but it does not automatically mean that the climate has changed
@pyrylium I can say with high confidence that it's probably not due to "normal variation in rainfall" considering they got a year's worth of rain in 2 days...
@siraben What if you look at historical patterns? What is the mean max daily rainfall? What is the standard deviation? How far back do records go?
@siraben Doesn't look all that rare,
https://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2008%2F01%2F15%2F44227
(there are many more)