Which of these disasters will strike the world next?

We hope that these will never strike, but life has shown us time and time again that tragedy is inexorable. When one comes, which of these will it be?

In all cases, >10 million people displaced or 100,000 dead, within a year. Must also start counting after this question and either be "new" or 10-fold worse than usual; for example, annual fluctuations (even significant) in the flu must be 10x+ worse than normal range.

This question's close date is fluid; it may be extended indefinitely until criteria are met.

This list is exclusive and ignores other disasters that would qualify (e.g. earthquakes, meteors, war, and so forth), but is otherwise as broad and flexible within the listed categories as I can imagine:

  • "Nuclear": intentional or accidental; explosion or meltdown; weapon, power plant, stockpile, or any other nuclear material source; can be multiple events of the same subtype, but effects must be within the timeframe.

  • "AI": intentional, accidental, or collateral; caused by artificial or synthetic intelligence(s) in any form, may further instigate these or any other disasters (then resolves equally to AI + primary source of human cost, if listed).

  • "Pandemic": infections of humans. viral, bacterial, technological, or other; natural, emergent, artificial, extraterrestrial, or other.

  • "Climate": extreme, anomalous, or anthropic; change in global weather flows, storms, acute temperatures, sea changes, ecosystem crash, etc., so long as the cause and human costs are easily associable to each other.

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I suspect this underestimates nuclear and AI because conditional on those killing 100,000 it's quite likely they'll kill billions, hence a significant chance of killing the user, so no profit advantage to betting them yes

Could you clarify the climate resolution criterion?

I created a dashboard market to make predictions about destruction caused due to earthquakes in 2024, anyone can submit.

Are we sure the climate one hasn't happened yet?

"In 2017, 68.5 million people were forcibly displaced, more than at any point in human history. While it is difficult to estimate, approximately one-third of these (22.5 million4 to 24 million5 people) were forced to move by “sudden onset” weather events—flooding, forest fires after droughts, and intensified storms."


Tectonic (lava eruptions and earthquakes) and extraterrestrial (meteorite/aliens/gamma bursts) do not fit in any.

@KongoLandwalker correct! except the carve out for extraterrestrially-derived pandemic

I think you should add option: Other.

Pandemic was essentially Other option at their start.

@SergiiNechuiviter I thought about it, and Alex's suggestion below of War, but I kinda like that it's not all-encompassing. Anyway, I can't currently add any to this type of market even if I wanted to :)

@SergiiNechuiviter I've rephrased the title now, though, so maybe it helps

I would have added war to this list

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